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- SEC decisions in October could unlock billions in XRP ETF inflows.
- Thin circulating supply amplifies potential price movements.
- ETF approvals and institutional demand could push XRP toward $50 by year-end.
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October 2025 may mark a pivotal moment for XRP investors. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) faces deadlines to rule on multiple XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. Approval could pave the way for spot XRP ETFs to debut in the fourth quarter, potentially attracting billions in institutional capital.
Analysts draw parallels to previous Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which drew massive inflows shortly after launch. Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, predicts XRP ETFs could see at least $5 billion in the first month alone, with the potential to outpace Ethereum ETF demand.
Capital Inflows and Market Dynamics
Several major players—including Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and 21Shares—have submitted official ETF filings. These applications follow Ripple’s recent legal victory over the SEC, and timing aligns with the agency’s October review window. A coordinated approval could allow multiple ETFs to roll out simultaneously in Q4.
XRP’s circulating supply adds an extra twist. Although the total supply exceeds 100 billion tokens, much of it is locked in escrow or held by large investors. This thin float means that even moderate institutional buying could trigger sharp price movements. Combined with the derivatives market, which now includes regulated XRP futures from CME and Coinbase, XRP is poised for heightened liquidity and investor interest.
The Road to a $50 XRP
Market commentator Pumpius outlines a scenario where $10–18 billion in total demand—via ETF inflows, futures arbitrage, corporate treasuries, and advisor rebalancing—could push XRP toward $50 by year-end. ETF approvals would unlock previously sidelined capital from pensions, wealth managers, and institutions seeking regulated crypto exposure.
🚨 If the SEC approves all spot XRP ETFs by October, the path to $50 by December ’25 isn’t hopium, it’s math + market structure.
— Pumpius (@pumpius) September 3, 2025
Read this before everyone else catches on. 🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/2bNjEbbnIp
Once inflows begin, a feedback loop could emerge: rising prices increase ETF assets under management, which attracts further investment. Year-end positioning, combined with investor FOMO, could amplify the rally, echoing patterns seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum in previous ETF cycles.
With regulatory momentum, a structured supply, and potential multi-billion-dollar inflows, XRP is positioned for a transformative Q4. If SEC approvals align, investors may witness one of the most dramatic crypto rallies of the year.
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Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
Also Read: XRP ETF Could Attract $150M–$20B in Inflows, AI Predicts Historic Launch
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