After a prolonged period of dormancy, Stellar (XLM) saw an explosive rally in November 2024, skyrocketing over 600% in less than a month. However, 2025 has brought a downward trend, mirroring the broader crypto market’s struggles. Despite this, XLM’s decline has been milder than that of many other altcoins, suggesting relative strength and potential for a strong recovery.
Stellar’s Lengthy Consolidation
Since hitting its cycle high of $0.636 on November 4, 2024, XLM has been gradually declining, moving within a descending wedge. This pattern is typically bullish, indicating that a breakout is likely as the price nears the end of the formation.
A key bullish indicator is XLM’s successful reclamation of the $0.280 horizontal resistance area. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator has shown a bullish divergence, aligning with the March 11 bounce at the wedge’s support trend line. These signals suggest that XLM is primed for an upward breakout.
Will XLM Break Out?
Technical analysis supports the likelihood of an XLM breakout from its wedge pattern. The wave count suggests that XLM has completed a five-wave decline inside the wedge, forming a leading diagonal structure. This implies that the breakout will lead to a relief rally rather than an immediate bull run.
If this count holds, XLM is currently in wave A of an A-B-C corrective structure, targeting the 0.382-0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance range between $0.388 and $0.435. In a bearish scenario, a rejection at the wedge’s resistance trend line could lead to a short-term decline to $0.215 before an eventual breakout later in April.
April: A Bullish Outlook
Stellar’s relative resilience compared to other altcoins positions it for a strong April. Technical indicators and market structure point toward an imminent breakout, with targets in the $0.388-$0.435 range. Even if the initial breakout attempt fails, a second attempt in the latter half of April remains likely.
Also Read: Stellar (XLM) Faces Bearish Breakdown: Key Support Levels and Market Outlook
With its solid consolidation phase and positive momentum, Stellar’s outlook for April remains bullish, making XLM one to watch in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
