Bitcoin has dropped below its short-term holder cost basis at $75,600, and Glassnode’s latest weekly report says the money that could push it back up is heading for the exits. The firm’s Week 45 on-chain analysis, with price data through November 11, points to shrinking stablecoin supply, ETF selling and soft US demand. It also flags early signs that large wallets are buying the dip.
What the $75.6K level means
The Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis is the average price paid by coins that changed hands recently. Think of it as the break-even line for newer buyers. Above it, recent buyers are in profit and tend to sit tight. Below it, they are underwater, and many sell into any bounce back toward break-even. Glassnode says reclaiming $75,600 would support the constructive case. Until that happens, the level acts as overhead resistance. A summary of the report puts roughly 65% of recent investors in unrealized losses
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Three signs capital is leaving
Glassnode highlights three places where money is thinning out:
- Stablecoins: Supply is shrinking at the fastest pace since June 2022. Stablecoins are the cash traders keep on the sidelines to buy crypto, so a falling supply means less buying power available.
- ETFs: US spot funds are net sellers. The report summary cites about $1.6 billion in net outflows over recent weeks, and separate data shows Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion in the week ending November 6, the worst week since late June.
- The Coinbase discount: Bitcoin trades at a discount on Coinbase compared with other venues. The summary reads that as a sign US institutional demand has paused.
Why it is not a one-way bearish story
The report is not all gloom. Leverage has been flushed out of the market, which lowers the risk of a cascade of forced liquidations. Glassnode also says two large wallet cohorts, those holding 100 to 1,000 BTC and 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, posted accumulation scores above 0.5 over the past week, which it reads as the start of buying. The firm argues the pullback keeps the trend change that began in August alive, as long as price holds above the June low.
Key Bitcoin levels to watch
- $75,600: the short-term holder cost basis. A reclaim would help the bulls.
- $73,000: the floor of the $73,000 to $76,000 band Glassnode flagged last week. A sustained break below it would point to a longer consolidation.
- $58,500: the June low. A close below it would undo the August trend change.
The macro backdrop adds pressure
Outside forces are not helping. Tuesday’s October CPI rose 0.4% on the headline and 0.3% on core, both above forecasts. CME FedWatch now shows about an 85% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike on December 9, with roughly 15% odds of a half-point move. Higher rates tend to drain liquidity from risk assets, which fits the capital-flow picture in Glassnode’s data. Bitcoin was changing hands around $74,000 at the time of writing.
Also Read: Fed Hike Odds Hit 85% After Hot CPI. Here’s What December Means for Bitcoin
What traders should watch next
Three things matter most: whether stablecoin supply stops shrinking, whether ETF flows turn back to inflows, and whether Bitcoin can close above $75,600. If $73,000 fails, Glassnode’s framework points to a longer sideways stretch rather than an immediate reversal of the August trend.
FAQ
What is the Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis? It is the average acquisition price of coins held for a relatively short time. It is often treated as the break-even line for recent buyers.
Where is Bitcoin’s key support right now? Glassnode points to $73,000 as the immediate floor and $58,500, the June low, as the level that protects the broader trend change.
Why does a falling stablecoin supply matter for Bitcoin? Stablecoins act as dry powder for crypto purchases. A shrinking supply means less capital is waiting to buy.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
