Bitcoin is stuck near $74,000, and the next big catalyst has a date: December 9. Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation report turned a probable Federal Reserve rate hike into a near-certainty. The live question now is how big the move will be and how hawkish the Fed sounds when it makes it.
The print that changed the math
October CPI rose 0.4% on the headline, against a 0.3% forecast. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, climbed 0.3% against an expected 0.2%, marking the third straight month at that pace. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish an annual rate, because last year’s government shutdown left a hole in the comparison data.
The core number carries extra weight. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday morning that a reading around 0.3% should put a half-point hike on the table. The report delivered exactly that.
What traders are pricing
After the release, CME FedWatch showed roughly an 85% chance of a quarter-point hike and about 15% for a half-point, with a hold effectively off the table. Early last week the same tool showed roughly a 72% chance of a quarter-point hike, so conviction jumped in days. The Fed already lifted rates to 3.75%–4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, then paused in October with two officials voting to hike. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has warned the central bank may need to move faster this winter.
September offers the best template. Bitcoin traded between about $75,000 and $76,500 after the decision, ticked up, then surrendered the gain once Chair Kevin Warsh started talking. Because the hike was priced in, it barely registered. Bitget analyst Lewis Huang said at the time that bitcoin could absorb more of the rate shock than equities. BitGo’s Greg Cipolaro argued that Bitcoin absorbing the Fed’s higher-for-longer projections without sustained selling was itself a telling sign.
By that logic, a 25-basis-point hike is not the main threat. A bigger move, or a harsher message, is.
Also Read: ETH Tests $2,000 as ETF Outflows Dry Up and Staking Queue Swells
Where the pressure is building
In September, 16 of the Fed’s 18 officials penciled in at least one more hike before year-end, so December fits the plan. The crypto market is the shakier part of the setup. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed roughly $1.28 billion in the week ending November 6, and another $95 million left on November 10, the fourth straight day of outflows. Bitcoin is down about 7% on the week, and analysts are watching the $72,000–$75,000 zone for support. Ether is feeling it too, sitting near $2,050 after tagging $2,006 intraday. A half-point hike or a hawkish projection could test those levels.
What to watch before December 9
The PPI report lands Friday, November 13, giving the Fed another inflation read. October’s CPI was the last one before the meeting, so producer prices and Fed speeches will carry the 25-versus-50 debate from here. Keep an eye on ETF flows too. If outflows keep running at last week’s pace, the hike arrives in a market already short of buyers.
The takeaway: a quarter-point hike is largely baked in, and Bitcoin has already shown it can look past one. The size of the move and the tone of the message are what’s still open.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
