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- Bitcoin has reclaimed $63,000 as macroeconomic conditions improve.
- Goldman Sachs expects further yen weakness, potentially supporting Bitcoin through carry trades.
- Japan’s growing crypto-friendly stance could strengthen long-term Bitcoin adoption.
Bitcoin has regained momentum, climbing back above the $63,000 mark as investors respond to improving market sentiment, seasonal strength in July, and expectations that global liquidity conditions could become more supportive. Another factor now drawing attention is the Japanese yen, which continues to weaken against the US dollar.
Analysts say a softer yen could encourage more carry trades—a strategy that has historically benefited higher-risk assets such as Bitcoin. With Goldman Sachs forecasting additional yen weakness over the coming months, crypto traders are closely watching developments in Japan’s currency market.
Goldman Sachs Raises Yen Weakness Forecast
Goldman Sachs now expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to reach 165 within the next year, increasing its previous outlook. The investment bank also lifted its three-month and six-month forecasts, citing persistent interest rate differences between Japan and the United States.
According to the bank, Japan continues to face fiscal pressures while US Treasury yields remain elevated. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is expected to tighten monetary policy only gradually, limiting support for the Japanese currency.
The yen recently traded near multi-decade lows against the US dollar despite the Bank of Japan’s latest interest rate increase. Rising government borrowing and higher bond yields have also added pressure on Japan’s financial outlook.
Why a Weak Yen Could Benefit Bitcoin
A declining yen can make carry trades more attractive. Investors borrow in a low-interest-rate currency like the yen and allocate those funds into assets offering higher potential returns. Bitcoin has increasingly become one of those destinations during periods of abundant global liquidity.
If the yen continues to weaken, borrowing costs remain relatively attractive, potentially supporting additional investment into cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. However, analysts caution that any sharp reversal in the currency could quickly reduce risk appetite and increase volatility across crypto markets.
Bitcoin Derivatives Show Mixed Signals
While Bitcoin’s recovery above $63,000 has improved sentiment, derivatives data paints a more balanced picture. Total Bitcoin futures open interest has edged higher, suggesting renewed participation from traders. However, activity on some major exchanges has softened over shorter timeframes, indicating that investors remain cautious despite the recent rebound.
Meanwhile, Japan continues to strengthen its position in the digital asset sector. The country’s National Business Corporate Pension Fund plans to explore investments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies beginning in fiscal 2026. Japanese policymakers have also been advancing reforms aimed at creating a more favorable environment for crypto investors, including proposals to lower taxes on digital asset gains.
Bitcoin’s latest rebound comes as macroeconomic factors once again take center stage. If the Japanese yen weakens further and global liquidity improves, demand for risk assets could receive another boost. Even so, investors are likely to keep a close eye on currency markets, central bank policy, and derivatives positioning, as any sudden shift could quickly change the outlook for Bitcoin.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
