Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have projected a 90% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Litecoin (LTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2025. Their assessment places Litecoin ahead of other pending crypto ETFs, including those for XRP, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), which have been assigned lower approval odds of 65%, 70%, and 75%, respectively.
Our official alt coin ETF approval odds are out. Litecoin leads w 90% chance, then Doge, followed by Solana and XRP. We are only doing for 33 Act $IBIT-esque filings. But def poss to see futures or Cayman-subsidiary type 40 Act stuff get through as well. https://t.co/JSaNnifjbu
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 10, 2025
SEC Likely to View Litecoin as a Commodity
Litecoin, created in 2011 as a faster alternative to Bitcoin, operates on a similar proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism. According to analysts, the SEC likely considers Litecoin a commodity, a classification that could streamline its ETF approval process.
Seyffart and Balchunas noted that Litecoin’s regulatory filings, including the necessary S-1 and 19b-4 forms, have already been submitted and acknowledged by the SEC. This puts Litecoin in a favorable position compared to assets like Solana and XRP, whose security status remains uncertain due to ongoing regulatory disputes.
Also Read: Grayscale Files for Cardano ETF with NYSE as Institutional Interest Surge
Growing Demand for Crypto ETFs
The push for additional crypto ETFs comes on the heels of strong investor demand for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. According to data from Farside Investors, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $40.7 billion in net inflows since their launch in January 2024, while Ethereum ETFs have seen $3.18 billion in inflows since their debut in July 2024.
Although Litecoin may not experience the same level of demand as Bitcoin and Ethereum, Seyffart suggests that an LTC ETF could still be viable. He noted that some fund issuers could find it worthwhile to launch an ETF with as little as $50 million in assets under management.
SEC Decision Timeline and Future Crypto ETFs
The final SEC decision on the Litecoin ETF, along with those for Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, is expected between October 2 and October 18, 2025. If approved, a Litecoin ETF could launch before that deadline.
Meanwhile, Seyffart predicts an influx of new crypto ETF filings as issuers take a “spaghetti cannon” approach—filing multiple applications to see which ones gain approval. While the outlook for Litecoin remains strong, the fate of other digital asset ETFs, particularly those linked to assets with unresolved regulatory concerns, remains uncertain.
It's our view. That until that WHOLE mess of litigation between Ripple/XRP and the SEC is settled and/or finished or has some sort of expected outcome etc etc — you likely won't see an ETF. The SEC needs to untangle that mess.
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025
With changing SEC leadership and evolving regulatory policies, the landscape for crypto ETFs in the U.S. could shift significantly in the coming months.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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