The US economy is now grappling with undeniable signs of a recession, despite outward appearances of stability. According to recent reports, key economic indicators confirm that the nation is entering a period of economic decline, marked by weakening growth and increasing uncertainty.
Leading Economic Index Signals Growing Risk
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI)—a well-regarded predictor of economic trends—fell by 0.1% in May, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline. This extended drop underscores a troubling trend: the index has declined in 37 of the past 39 months, one of the worst streaks ever recorded.
The LEI, which incorporates 10 major economic markers such as jobless claims, stock prices, and manufacturing activity, is designed to forecast the US economy’s near-term trajectory. Historically, a sustained drop in this index has served as an early warning sign of impending recession.
Index Decline Reaches 9-Year Low
The numbers are becoming more alarming. The LEI has now fallen by an annualized 5% over the last six months and is down a staggering 16% from its peak, hitting its lowest level in nearly nine years.
Leading US economic indicators are still signaling a recession:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 23, 2025
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell- 0.1% MoM in May, posting its 6th straight monthly decline.
This index has declined in 37 out of the last 39 months, one of the worst streaks on record.
The… pic.twitter.com/yDxNR4ZuBK
Analysts note that this depth of decline typically correlates with economic slowdowns. As these negative trends persist, fears are mounting that the US is already in the grip of a recession—despite a surface-level image of resilience.
How the LEI Index Predicts Economic Health
The LEI functions as a barometer of economic momentum. By blending various forward-looking metrics—including weekly hours in manufacturing, building permits for new homes, and stock performance—it aims to project whether economic growth will accelerate or contract.
When the LEI consistently falls, it generally indicates that industrial activity is slowing, consumer demand is weakening, and business confidence is eroding—all classic precursors to a recession.
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With the LEI plummeting to new lows, the signs are clear: the US economy is navigating dangerous waters. While mainstream narratives may still project optimism, the data suggests growing structural weaknesses.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
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