The highly anticipated approval of a spot Ethereum ETF by May 2024 seems less likely with each passing day. Bloomberg ETF analysts, once optimistic, have significantly downgraded their chances from a high of 70% to a mere 30%.
This shift in sentiment stems from a lack of progress on the regulatory front. Unlike the Bitcoin ETF approval process, there haven’t been any tell-tale signs, such as filing changes or issuer communication with the SEC. This silence is raising concerns among market participants.
Market Makers Still Hopeful (With Reservations)
Crypto market-making firm GSR, initially confident in a 70% chance, now acknowledges the lack of pre-approval activity. While GSR still sees approval as more likely than not, Research Analyst Brian Rudick cautions that their estimate could change. The absence of progress compared to the Bitcoin ETF approval timeline is a key factor.
Waiting for Signs From the SEC
Variant Fund Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky emphasizes the importance of upcoming weeks. He expects the SEC to reveal its stance on Ethereum ETFs through its actions, similar to the way it foreshadowed Bitcoin ETF approval. The absence of such signs could be a strong indicator of rejection by May.
Also Read: Ethereum’s Dencun Upgrade in 2 Days: Can it Slash Layer-2 Fees by 90% and Send ETH Soaring?
Investment Banks Echo the Skepticism
JPMorgan and TD Cowen, prominent investment banks, have also aligned themselves with the pessimistic outlook, further dampening hopes for a May approval.
While a 30% chance remains, the lack of progress and growing skepticism suggest a potential delay in the much-awaited Ethereum ETF approval. Investors and enthusiasts should closely monitor SEC activity in the coming weeks for any signs that might shed light on the agency’s final decision.
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