Cardano (ADA) could be on the verge of a major breakout as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) prepares to issue a key decision on Grayscale’s proposed spot Cardano ETF. With the decision expected on May 29, market optimism is climbing—pushing ETF approval odds to their highest level in over a month.
ETF Approval Odds Jump to 71% Ahead of SEC Deadline
According to prediction market Polymarket, the odds of a spot Cardano ETF being approved now sit at 71%, up from just 37% in mid-April. This surge in sentiment reflects growing confidence that the SEC may greenlight crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas estimates a 75% chance that a Cardano ETF will be approved in 2024, possibly as early as this summer.
🇺🇸 Grayscale's Cardano $ADA ETF deadline for decision is this week.
— Cardanians (CRDN) (@Cardanians_io) May 26, 2025
The SEC must approve, deny, or delay it by this Thursday, May 29.
Do you think it'll get approval this week? pic.twitter.com/84o9lyLksJ
The SEC has until October 22 to issue a final decision, following its formal acknowledgment of Grayscale’s ETF application on February 24. While a delay remains likely, many traders are betting on a near-term catalyst that could send ADA sharply higher.
Cardano’s Ecosystem Faces Growth Challenges
Despite the bullish ETF narrative, Cardano’s ecosystem remains underdeveloped compared to its rivals. The network currently hosts just 48 DeFi apps and holds $443 million in total value locked (TVL). It also trails in stablecoin volume, with only $31 million in circulation.
Newer chains like Unichain and Sonic have shown stronger growth, which continues to raise questions about Cardano’s ability to attract developers and users. Nevertheless, an approved ETF could be the spark needed to reverse this trend and bring more institutional attention to the platform.
Also Read: Cardano Launches v10.4.1 Upgrade, Expands into Argentina with Strategic Partnerships
Technical Indicators Suggest ADA Is Primed for a Move
ADA is currently trading at $0.7493 , holding firm above its 100-week moving average—an important support level. While momentum indicators like the MACD show short-term weakness and the RSI sits at a neutral 51, the long-term setup remains positive. ADA’s 30-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs are all bullish.
If the SEC surprises the market with an approval, ADA could rally past key resistance at $0.84 and potentially retest its 2023 high of $1.20. A sustained move beyond that could pave the way for a push toward the $2 mark.
As ETF speculation intensifies, all eyes are on the SEC’s decision—an announcement that could redefine ADA’s price trajectory.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
