Cardano ETF Approval Odds Surge to 79% as SEC Talks Gain Momentum.

Sean Williams
Cardano-ADA

Key Takeaways:

  • Polymarket odds for U.S. SEC approval of a Cardano ETF in 2025 have surged to 79%.
  • Market confidence is rising amid signs of a more favorable SEC stance and growing institutional demand.
  • Despite ADA’s recent price dip, ETF approval could serve as a major catalyst for future gains.

Polymarket now shows a striking 79% chance that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025. This is the highest figure recorded so far—signaling a major shift in investor sentiment. The market is clearly moving from cautious optimism to strong belief, with analysts likening this rising probability to thunder before a storm. For Cardano, ETF approval could be the game-changer it has long awaited.

Rising Bets on ADA’s Regulatory Breakthrough

Since May, Polymarket odds for a Cardano ETF have surged from 60% to the current 79%. This momentum isn’t built on speculation alone—it reflects tangible shifts in the regulatory landscape. Bloomberg ETF analysts recently raised their approval odds for XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs to 90%, underscoring growing confidence that crypto’s regulatory hurdles are being cleared.

Fueling this optimism are reports of ongoing, more constructive talks between the SEC and asset managers. Under new SEC Chair Paul Atkins, the tone has reportedly shifted from resistance to readiness. As institutional demand for crypto-based financial products continues to rise, the need for structured, regulated vehicles like ETFs has become a priority.

Market Optimism Grows While ADA Price Dips

Ironically, while ETF approval odds climb, Cardano’s price has been under pressure. Over the past five days, ADA has dropped more than 1%, driven by broader crypto market volatility linked to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Additionally, major ADA holders—or whales—have sold off around 230 million ADA between Monday and Wednesday, compounding short-term bearish sentiment.

Also Read: Bloomberg Analysts Raise XRP, Cardano, Dogecoin ETF Approval Odds to 90%

Despite this, many analysts see current price weakness as a temporary pullback. An eventual ETF approval could serve as the catalyst to propel ADA prices higher, with current volatility viewed as the calm before a potential rally.

Regulatory Shift Could Unlock Cardano’s Potential

With regulatory momentum building and institutional interest sharpening, Cardano’s path toward an ETF approval now appears more like a clear runway than an uncertain gamble. Should the SEC give the green light, market reactions could be swift and significant—turning what is now speculation into reality.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses

Related Posts