Key Takeaways:
- Bloomberg analysts now give XRP, DOGE, and ADA spot ETFs a 90% approval chance by year-end.
- Early ETF approvals could emerge by late June or more likely in Q4 2025, with October 18 as a key date.
- VanEck’s SOL ETF listing on DTCC shows continued institutional interest, despite market volatility.
The chances of US regulators approving spot crypto ETFs for XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) are now higher than ever. Bloomberg Senior ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised the approval odds to 90%, signaling increased optimism within the market.
Positive Signs in the SEC Approval Process
The cryptocurrency market has been closely monitoring the US SEC’s handling of various crypto ETF applications. Investors hope for green lights on products that track XRP, DOGE, SOL, ADA, DOT, LTC, and NEAR. These spot ETFs allow exposure to cryptocurrencies without the complexities of holding tokens directly—an attractive proposition for institutional and retail investors alike.
James Seyffart announced on X that he and Balchunas are now assigning “90% or higher” odds for most spot crypto ETF approvals, thanks to encouraging feedback from SEC engagements. As of early June, Polymarket placed XRP ETF approval odds at 93% by December 31, 2025, up 23% from prior months.
NEW: @EricBalchunas & I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher. Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion pic.twitter.com/5dh8G8rK6Y
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 20, 2025
Timeline for Potential ETF Approvals
According to Seyffart, the SEC could start granting approvals as early as late June or July. However, the more realistic window is early Q4, with October 18 flagged as a pivotal date. While the SEC has historically delayed ETF decisions, the current regulatory mood seems increasingly positive.
Also Read: Bloomberg: Solana & Litecoin ETFs Have 90% Chance of Approval by 2025
VanEck’s SOL ETF Advances Despite Market Dip
Meanwhile, VanEck’s Solana (SOL) ETF is gaining momentum. On June 18, VanEck listed its SOL ETF (VSOL) on the DTCC clearing platform—a significant procedural milestone, though not a formal SEC approval. This move strengthens the long-term case for SOL-related products, even as SOL’s price faces short-term pressures, recently declining 4% to $142.26.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
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