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- The MVRV ratio has normalized, suggesting BTC is no longer in “overvalued” territory compared to its historical average.
- Selling pressure is slowing, with Spot CVD showing a modest improvement despite lower overall trading volumes.
- A large cohort of 3–6 month holders is currently underwater, keeping the market in a defensive but stable range.
The aggressive selling that defined the start of the year appears to be losing its momentum. Recent on-chain data suggests Bitcoin is entering a “valuation reset” phase, where investor profitability has cooled off from recent extremes and returned toward historical averages.
While the market remains in a defensive stance, the underlying plumbing—specifically how much supply is being absorbed at current levels—hints at a potential shift in the narrative.
Market Value Normalizes After Peak Stress
According to Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish, the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has fully normalized. In simpler terms, the excessive “overvaluation” seen during the previous price run-up has been wiped out. This metric, which compares market cap to the price at which coins were last moved, now sits near a level that has historically offered a better risk-reward profile for buyers.
However, the “Realized Cap”—the total value stored in the network—has dipped by approximately $33 billion since its late 2025 peak. Currently sitting at $1.09 trillion, this contraction reflects sustained capital outflows over the last 30 days. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. notes that a significant 25.9% of the supply is now held by investors who bought in three to six months ago, many of whom are currently “underwater” on their positions.
Signs of Absorption in the Order Books
Despite the dip in value, the “blood in the streets” may be drying up. Exchange order flow data shows that the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD)—a measure of the difference between buying and selling market orders—is beginning to flatten.
Also Read: Bitcoin Panic Hits Extreme Fear: Corporate Bets Collapse as BTC Struggles
The spot CVD improved slightly from -$177.1 million to -$161.5 million. While this still reflects more selling than buying, the rate of decline is slowing significantly. This shift occurred even as total spot trading volume fell from $7.6 billion to $6 billion, suggesting that the remaining participants are less desperate to exit and more willing to hold the line.
What’s Next for the $64,000 Range?
History suggests that when CVD drawdowns stabilize during a price decline, a local bottom is often nearby. Bitcoin has recently hovered within the $62,000–$64,000 zone, a range where supply is being absorbed more efficiently.
For a true trend reversal to take hold, analysts are watching for a return of positive momentum in the realized cap and a meaningful uptick in spot participation. For now, the market remains “neutrally defensive”—waiting for the next wave of capital to decide the direction of the next move.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
