Bitcoin (BTC) is catching the attention of investors with a notable 3% gain today, fueling expectations of a potential rally. A recent report from Matrixport suggests that Bitcoin could surge by up to 20% during the Chinese New Year, citing historical trends and market optimism. This comes amid increasing speculation about a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and favorable pro-crypto regulations in the U.S., particularly with Donald Trump’s re-election campaign.
#MatrixOnTarget Reportđź“Š – Jan 24: The Chinese New Year Effect: #Bitcoin +21%⤴️ with an 83% hit ratio!#Crypto #CryptoMarketOverview #CryptoInvestors #BTC #Matrixport pic.twitter.com/dsqRz8xpPv
— Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) January 24, 2025
Why BTC Can Rally This Chinese New Year
Historically, the Chinese New Year has proven to be a bullish season for Bitcoin. According to Matrixport, Bitcoin has posted positive returns in 11 out of the last 12 years, with an impressive 83% success rate. This seasonal trend is attributed to heightened trading activity as families and investors exchange gifts and funds, boosting demand for Bitcoin.
The report also highlights China’s significant role in Bitcoin’s early growth. By 2014, China controlled nearly 70% of global Bitcoin trading, driven by capital controls and large-scale mining operations. As the global understanding of Bitcoin increases, the Chinese New Year has become a crucial period for expanding Bitcoin’s network effect.
Major Technical and Macroeconomic Factors
Bitcoin’s current price is influenced by a mix of technical and macroeconomic factors. On the technical side, oversold indicators suggest potential support, but weekly metrics show overbought conditions. From a macroeconomic perspective, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies and tightening liquidity create challenges for BTC. However, the growing possibility of a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve under a pro-crypto Trump presidency is seen as a bullish factor.
Trump has been vocal about making the U.S. the crypto capital, further boosting market sentiment. Additionally, the recent rescinding of the SEC’s SAB 121 crypto accounting rule has fueled optimism in the market.
Can BTC Surge 20% This Chinese New Year?
With the Chinese New Year starting on January 29, Bitcoin’s seasonal trend suggests potential for a 20% rally. In 2022 and 2023, BTC surged by 26% and 23%, respectively, during this period. Matrixport analysts call this the “most favorable 20-day window” for Bitcoin, offering an enticing opportunity for long positions.
BTC has recently traded at $105,489, up more than 3%, with trading volume climbing 65% to $99 billion. The cryptocurrency’s all-time high of $109K on Trump’s inauguration day reflects growing market confidence. With indicators signaling a strong uptrend, many traders are watching for a possible surge to $120K, highlighting continued bullish momentum for Bitcoin.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
Also Read: Bitcoin Hits ATH, But Altcoin Season May Still Deliver Massive Gains for Shiba Inu
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