Avalanche [AVAX] appears to be at a pivotal crossroads, consolidating just below the crucial $25 resistance level. After reclaiming the $22.58 neckline, the altcoin trades around $23.35 at press time, down 0.58% on the day. Historically, this zone has acted as a turning point, and the current price action—compressing within a rising wedge—suggests that volatility may be imminent. A successful breakout could catapult AVAX towards $30, but another rejection risks a drop back to $22.50.
Whale Accumulation Signals Bullish Undercurrent
A notable shift in whale behavior is adding weight to bullish sentiment. Over the past week, AVAX netflows surged by +191.9%, reflecting increased accumulation from large holders. This activity has coincided with the price pressing against the $25 resistance, often a sign of smart money positioning.
While it’s unclear if this marks speculative front-running or long-term conviction, continued whale inflows could supply the momentum needed for a breakout. Conversely, a slowdown in accumulation may sap strength from the bulls, limiting upward movement.
Retail Traders Drive Momentum, But Depth Lacking
Retail activity has also surged, especially in mid-tier transaction sizes. Transactions between $1k–$10k soared by +282.63%, while those between $100–$1k rose by +167.79%. However, activity in higher-value brackets above $10k remained flat or declined, highlighting minimal institutional involvement.
Wallet concentration metrics support this trend: retail holdings jumped +12.93% in 30 days, while whale holdings rose only +4.38%. This retail-driven rally can support short-term gains but may lack the staying power for sustained growth without stronger institutional participation.
Derivatives Market Heats Up Amid Mixed On-Chain Signals
Derivatives data shows increasing trader anticipation. AVAX’s trading volume rose +21.64% to $962.72M, and Open Interest climbed +2.66% to $576.53M. Binance reports that 75.08% of traders are long, creating a lopsided 3.01 long/short ratio. While this supports bullish sentiment, it also introduces the risk of liquidation cascades if AVAX fails to breach $25.
Meanwhile, despite Avalanche’s recent $240 billion RWA tokenization deal with New Jersey municipalities, on-chain adoption has cooled. Active and new addresses dropped sharply, raising questions about real user growth.
$240B in real estate is coming on-chain.@balconytech is working with Bergen County and multiple other NJ municipalities to digitize property records, and it’s powered by Avalanche.
— Avalanche🔺 (@avax) May 28, 2025
This is the largest blockchain deed initiative in U.S. history. pic.twitter.com/aeI0t5nffp
The coming days will be crucial for Avalanche (AVAX). While technicals and sentiment point to a breakout, confirmation through volume, adoption, and institutional support is essential to avoid another failed rally.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
Also Read: Avalanche Expands Reach With Filecoin, FIFA, Real Estate, and Music Industry Deals
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