Bitcoin started the week on a downward trend, slipping below $64,000 on September 30, 2024. TradingView data reveals that the top cryptocurrency dropped from a high of $65,760 earlier in the day to a low of $63,049. As of October 1, Bitcoin is trading around $63,956, marking a 1.01% dip over the past 24 hours.
Despite this price fluctuation, there are indicators suggesting that Bitcoin’s bull market may not be over just yet. On September 30, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed to Bitcoin’s growth rate difference as a key metric to watch, hinting that bullish momentum could still be in play. He noted, “Bears, I’m sorry, but #Bitcoin is still in the middle of the bull cycle.”
Bitcoin’s Market Cap Signals Strength
Ju’s analysis focuses on the connection between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and realized capitalization. Historically, when the market cap rises more quickly than the realized cap, it has often signaled a sustained bull market. Ju shared a chart illustrating this correlation, which highlights past bull and bear phases, going as far back as 2013.
The data shows that a sharp increase in market cap in 2013 kicked off a bull run, followed by a steep correction in 2014. Similar patterns emerged in 2017 and 2018, with Bitcoin peaking in late 2017 before entering a bear market the following year.
More recently, the period between 2019 and 2021 saw Bitcoin reach new all-time highs, only to experience a significant decline in 2022 as inflationary pressures and broader market corrections weighed on the cryptocurrency sector. By early 2023, Bitcoin’s growth rate comparison began to reverse again, signaling a potential return to bullish momentum. If this trend continues, analysts suggest the current market rally could extend through 2025.
Breaking September’s Historical Trend
September has traditionally been a challenging month for Bitcoin, often linked to price declines. However, September 2024 defied expectations with an impressive rise of over 10%, breaking from the historical pattern. This positive performance has sparked optimism for the months ahead.
Market expert Ali Martinez highlighted that September’s positive close has historically led to significant gains in the following months. For instance, after strong September performances in 2015 and 2016, Bitcoin surged by 33.49% in October and 14.71% in November. If these patterns hold, Bitcoin could be on track for similar upward momentum in Q4.
Supporting this bullish outlook, Quinten François, co-founder of WeRate, emphasized that 80% of previous Octobers have delivered positive results for Bitcoin. He further noted that in election years, Bitcoin has consistently closed in the green during October, November, and December. Additionally, François remarked that when September has shown strength, the final quarter of the year has typically followed with positive returns.
Outlook for Q4 2024
With Bitcoin breaking from its usual September slump and key analysts forecasting continued bullish momentum, the market could be poised for further gains in the coming months. Historical data suggests that a strong September often sets the stage for a robust fourth quarter. While the recent dip below $64,000 may raise concerns among some traders, the overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with potential for Bitcoin to reach new highs as 2024 progresses.
For investors, the current market signals indicate that the bull cycle may still have legs, and if past trends are any indication, Bitcoin could see significant upward movement through the remainder of the year.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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