The likelihood of altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) gaining approval in the U.S. is increasing, fueled by a more crypto-friendly stance from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new leadership. Analysts now see a high probability of approval for Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), Solana (SOL), and XRP ETFs, with LTC leading the pack at 90%.
A Shift in Regulatory Sentiment
The shift in sentiment comes as former U.S. President Donald Trump strengthens his political influence, positioning himself as a pro-crypto candidate. Bloomberg ETF analysts suggest that the changing regulatory environment could pave the way for multiple altcoin ETFs by the end of 2025, marking a major milestone for institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Litecoin and Dogecoin Lead the ETF Race
According to Bloomberg analysts, Litecoin and Dogecoin have the highest chances of ETF approval, given their market maturity and SEC filings. The SEC has already acknowledged 19b-4 filings for Litecoin and Solana, while XRP and Dogecoin are still awaiting recognition. SEC Form 19b-4 is a crucial step in the approval process, signaling the agency’s consideration of a proposed rule change related to an ETF listing.
NEW: @EricBalchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We're putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board. Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now.
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025
Here's the table with the odds and some other details: pic.twitter.com/xaXaNXLb0M
Litecoin’s high probability of approval is attributed to its proof-of-work (PoW) mining model, similar to Bitcoin (BTC), which has already secured a spot ETF. Dogecoin, despite its meme origins, has evolved into a multi-billion-dollar investment vehicle, potentially qualifying as a commodity under new SEC leadership.
XRP Faces Regulatory Challenges
While XRP has seen a strong price surge this bull cycle, its ETF approval remains uncertain due to its ongoing legal battle with the SEC. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart believes that XRP’s chances remain slim until the litigation between Ripple and the SEC is resolved. However, the SEC is expected to acknowledge 19b-4 filings for both XRP and Dogecoin later this week.
It's our view. That until that WHOLE mess of litigation between Ripple/XRP and the SEC is settled and/or finished or has some sort of expected outcome etc etc — you likely won't see an ETF. The SEC needs to untangle that mess.
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025
The SEC’s crypto-focused working group, led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, could provide more clarity on digital asset classification by the end of 2025. The agency is expected to decide on proposed altcoin ETFs by October, potentially setting the stage for broader institutional adoption beyond Bitcoin.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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