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XRP traders are placing a big bet against a rally that’s already outpaced them. Despite the token climbing to $1.482 and posting an 18.5% recovery from last week’s low, short positions have swelled past $2 billion in 24-hour volume — and smart money is signaling it thinks the bounce won’t last.
The setup is unusual. Retail and whale traders across major exchanges remain firmly bullish, yet the professional trading crowd known as “smart money” is leaning hard the other way. That split is setting the stage for a tense next few days in the XRP market.
Retail Is Bullish, Smart Money Isn’t Buying It
On Binance, retail traders show a 2.25 long/short ratio — solidly bullish — while whale accounts go even further at 2.62, landing in extremely bullish territory. OKX and Bybit tell a similar story, with Bybit’s retail and whale positions both hitting 3.12, the most lopsided long bias of the three exchanges.
Smart money sees it differently. On Binance and Bybit, this more sophisticated trading cohort is rated extremely bearish, suggesting these traders view the current rebound as a fade opportunity rather than the start of a sustained move. OKX bucks the trend, with its smart money reading extremely bullish — the lone dissenting voice in an otherwise skeptical camp.
Despite that split, short-side taker volume edged out longs over the past day, at 50.67% versus 49.33% — a gap worth roughly $60 million in dollar terms.
Shorts Are Getting Burned Across Every Timeframe
The market has already started punishing the bears. Liquidation data shows shorts have taken the overwhelming share of losses at every interval measured. Over the last 24 hours, short liquidations totaled nearly $8 million against just $1.48 million for longs. That imbalance holds in the hourly data too — in the past hour alone, shorts accounted for $4.55 million of $4.67 million in total liquidations.
Volatility topped 8% during the move, sweeping out nearly 1,928 traders globally, with one single liquidation event wiping out over $1 million during Sunday’s morning session.
Also Read: XRP Whales Pull $165M From Exchanges as Withdrawals Hit Seven-Month High
Where XRP Goes From Here
The technical picture hinges on a few key thresholds. Holding above $1.48 could squeeze more shorts out of position, opening a path toward $1.60–$1.65 resistance and potentially $1.80 if that zone breaks. But if the bearish smart-money read proves correct, $1.35–$1.38 becomes the first line of defense, with the September 16 low of $1.25 as the fallback floor.
For now, the tug-of-war between crowd optimism and smart-money caution leaves XRP at a genuine inflection point — one where the next move could validate either side decisively.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
