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Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average on Sunday for the first time in over ten months, reigniting debate over whether the crypto market’s long bear phase has finally run its course.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency ended the week at $81,159 on Coinbase, pushing past its 50-week moving average of $78,788, according to TradingView data. The last time Bitcoin managed a weekly close above that line was November 9, 2025. It’s also the highest weekly close Bitcoin has posted in four months.
Why This Level Matters to Traders
The 50-week moving average isn’t just another chart line — historically, it’s acted as a ceiling that Bitcoin struggles to break during downturns. Galaxy Research’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, flagged this pattern back in August, noting that in four of Bitcoin’s five completed bear markets, the first decisive break above this average lined up with the eventual bottom being confirmed.
Ben Simpson, founder of Collective Shift, put it bluntly ahead of the weekly close: this was the final piece of evidence he needed before calling the current move a genuine bull market. He pointed to Bitcoin’s track record after similar breaks in 2017, 2020, and 2023, when prices rallied between 700% and 900% in the aftermath.
Bitget’s chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph the close strengthens the argument that a recovery is underway, though he was careful to note that reclaiming this level in past cycles has typically come after the actual low was already behind the market — not as the trigger itself.
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Not Everyone’s Convinced Yet
Caution is still warranted. Lee stressed that a single weekly close doesn’t confirm anything on its own — Bitcoin needs to hold above the average and keep printing higher lows. He also pointed to two prior instances, both during the brutal 2021–2022 bear market, where a similar break above the 50-week average was followed by a fresh lower low. Galaxy’s own research echoed that warning, calling the signal historically strong but not infallible.
Still, Lee sees a healthier backdrop now than earlier this year. Bitcoin has clawed back significant ground since bottoming near $57,000 in July, excess leverage has been flushed out through repeated liquidations, and there are early signs institutional buyers are stepping back in.
Other Traders Are Watching Different Signals
Not everyone is anchored to the moving average. Trader Craig Cobb told Cointelegraph he’s watching $83,000 instead — a break there would erase the pattern of lower highs on the monthly chart. Cobb also tracks a quarterly candle pattern: a string of red candles followed by a green one, then a subsequent candle breaking that green candle’s high. Historically, that setup has preceded a new all-time high 11 out of 11 times it’s played out. For Cobb, all three conditions lining up — the $83,000 break, September’s quarterly close, and the follow-through candle — would be his real confirmation of a bull market.
For now, Bitcoin has cleared a meaningful hurdle. Whether it holds is the next test.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
