Bitcoin investors are facing a turbulent two months ahead as tariff uncertainty under U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to disrupt market momentum, warns Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Hundal said the biggest risk to Bitcoin bulls is a prolonged stalemate in U.S. trade policy, where ongoing tariff ultimatums create instability.
“The biggest threat to bulls right now is that nothing changes over the next two months, and we just stay trapped in this cycle of endless tariff ultimatums,” Hundal stated.
Tariff pressures already forced Bitcoin to dip below $100,000 in February, and despite a recovery in May, the market remains sensitive to political developments. On May 28, a U.S. court blocked Trump attempt to raise tariffs, yet he doubled duties on steel and aluminum, renewing volatility.
Federal Reserve in Wait-and-See Mode
Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. policymakers are holding off on monetary easing until there is “hard data” on the economic impact of tariffs. On May 7, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, citing growing concerns about inflation and unemployment.
Hundal believes this cautious stance could harm growth and weigh on risk-on assets like Bitcoin. “If bears have their ‘I told you so’ moment, you could see Bitcoin drop back below $100,000,” he warned.
Bitcoin has risen 47.66% over the past year, but momentum may stall if inflation targets continue to drift further out of reach. “Six months ago, a 2% inflation target looked possible; today, it is under longer-term threat from tariffs,” Hundal added.
Also Read: Glassnode: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Heats Up With $500M/Hour Realized in Gains
Tariff Resolution Could Ignite BTC Rally
Despite current headwinds, analysts remain hopeful. Hundal believes that if Trump’s “tariff sabre rattling” ceases, Bitcoin could surge to $120,000 as early as June.
Bitfinex analysts echo this optimism, predicting a new all-time high above $115,000 in July if institutional buying continues and U.S. employment data turns out softer than expected. A weaker jobs report could support the case for rate cuts, reinforcing the disinflation narrative and sparking renewed bullish momentum.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
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