Key Takeaways:
- Analyst Jeff Walton estimates MSTR could enter S&P 500 if Bitcoin holds above $95,240.
- Strategy needs a profitable Q2 to offset three previous quarters of losses.
- MSTR would join Coinbase as the second crypto-native firm in the S&P 500.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), the publicly traded company helmed by Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, has a high probability of qualifying for inclusion in the S&P 500—if Bitcoin (BTC) doesn’t drop more than 10% in the final days of Q2 2025.
Financial analyst Jeff Walton estimates a 91% chance of MicroStrategy being added to the prestigious index, provided BTC stays above $95,240 through June 30. As of Tuesday, Bitcoin trades at $106,200, well above that threshold.
91% chance of $MSTR qualifying for S&P in 6 days https://t.co/uGkzAuTQ2Y
— Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) June 24, 2025
Why Bitcoin Price Matters to MicroStrategy
MicroStrategy, which now operates under the brand name Strategy, holds 592,345 BTC, the largest Bitcoin treasury among public companies. In January, it adopted ASU 2023-08, a new accounting rule that requires digital assets like Bitcoin to be measured at fair market value, with revaluation gains or losses flowing through the income statement.
To qualify for S&P 500 inclusion, a company must have positive earnings across the last four quarters. Strategy, however, has reported losses in the last three. Walton emphasized that if Q2 earnings, heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s price, don’t outweigh losses from the previous quarters, Strategy will fall short.
Probability Strengthens As Quarter Ends
Walton’s model considers the historical volatility of Bitcoin. Since September 17, 2014, Bitcoin has dropped more than 10% in a 6-day window only 8.7% of the time.
“As the days count down, the probability of a qualifying quarter improves,” Walton noted. The odds of Bitcoin not falling more than 10% increase to:
- 92.4% over 5 days
- 94.5% over 3 days
- 97.6% with 1 day remaining
This gives MicroStrategy an improving outlook as June 30 approaches.
Also Read: MicroStrategy Insiders Dump MSTR Stock Amid Bitcoin Push
Crypto’s Growing Role in Major Indices
If successful, MicroStrategy would become the second crypto-linked company to join the S&P 500 this year, following Coinbase’s inclusion in May 2025. In December 2024, Strategy was also added to the Nasdaq-100 Index, reflecting its growing market cap and relevance.
Meryem Habibi, Chief Revenue Officer of Bitpace, hailed the shift, saying, “It cements the legitimacy of an entire asset class.”
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
