Kalshi’s legal fight to keep operating in Utah just took another hit. The 10th Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the platform’s request for an emergency injunction pending appeal, clearing the way for Utah to enforce its anti-gambling statutes against the prediction market operator while the broader case plays out.

What The Ruling Actually Changes

Kalshi had asked the appeals court to block Utah from pursuing civil or criminal action against it during the appeal process. That request is now dead. Legal commentator Daniel Wallach flagged the decision on social media, noting it hands Utah a green light to move forward with enforcement. The denial follows a federal judge’s ruling last month that sided with Utah, affirming that the state’s gambling laws do apply to Kalshi’s sports-related contracts — a rejection of Kalshi’s central argument that the CFTC alone has jurisdiction over these products because they’re structured as swaps.

A Pattern, Not An Isolated Loss

This isn’t a one-off setback. According to Wallach, states have now strung together 12 consecutive federal court wins against prediction market platforms since a brief win in Minnesota, where a judge temporarily blocked a state ban days before it was set to take effect. That early victory has since been overshadowed by a string of losses, including a 9th Circuit ruling that classified sports contracts as sports bets outright. Across all preliminary injunctions, restraining orders, and appeal-stay requests tracked so far, states have won 35 of 41 rulings — roughly an 85% success rate.

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The Supreme Court Question Still Looms

The bigger fight hasn’t been settled. New Jersey has filed a petition asking the Supreme Court to weigh in directly on whether states have authority over sports-linked prediction markets at all. That’s the case that could ultimately override this string of state-level wins. For now, though, traders don’t seem to be pricing in a quick resolution — data from Polymarket puts the odds of the Supreme Court even taking up the case by year-end at just 31%.

Kalshi’s Utah loss is another data point in a legal landscape tilting hard toward state regulators, at least in the lower courts. Until the Supreme Court decides whether to step in, prediction market platforms are left navigating a patchwork of state enforcement actions with little federal cover — and Utah just became the latest state free to act.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.

Sean Williams

I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!