XRP holders may be in for a rough ride as multiple price fractals suggest a significant downturn. Despite recent bullish sentiment, historical patterns indicate that XRP could face a 60% decline in the coming months, following its 40% drop from the multi-year high of $3.40 in January.
Denial Before the Crash? XRP’s NUPL Signals Caution
On-chain data from Glassnode highlights XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric entering the “denial” zone, a precursor to previous market collapses. Historically, when NUPL reaches extreme optimism, it signals a potential price top before a steep correction.
- 2018: XRP peaked above $3.00, then collapsed 90% to $0.30 as euphoria turned into capitulation.
- 2021: XRP hit $1.96 before plunging 75% to $0.50, following the same sentiment shift.
- 2025: With XRP trading around $2.50 in March, history could repeat itself, leading to further declines.
XRP Faces Bearish Technical Fractals
Technical indicators also suggest XRP is at risk of repeating past bear cycles.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) Divergence: Similar to 2021, XRP’s price formed a local top while RSI printed a lower high, signaling weakening momentum.
- Moving Averages Breakdown: If XRP breaks below its 50-week EMA ($1.58), the next major support lies at the 200-week EMA ($0.87)—a potential 60% drop from current levels.
Is There Hope for a Rebound?
Some traders remain optimistic. The rally that pushed XRP up 585% in two months was fueled by speculation over a potential Ripple SEC lawsuit victory, a spot XRP ETF, and pro-crypto policies under Trump’s administration.
Also Read: XRP’s Bullish Breakout? Analyst Predicts Surge to $4.60 Amid Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern
While XRP’s consolidation could lead to another breakout, historical trends suggest caution. If XRP fails to hold key support levels, it may be headed for another prolonged correction, similar to past cycles.
Will XRP defy expectations, or is another steep decline inevitable? Traders remain divided as the token’s next move looms large.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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