Ethereum Whale Awakens After 10 Years—But On-Chain Data Signals Bullish Outlook

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Key Takeaways:

• Exchange outflows suggest long-term accumulation and reduced sell pressure.
  
• Positive funding rates reinforce bullish trader expectations.
  
• Rising social dominance shows growing market interest—but sentiment remains cautious.

An early Ethereum [ETH] ICO participant has moved 1,140 ETH—worth approximately $2.88 million—after nearly a decade of dormancy. The transaction closely followed another eyebrow-raising move: the U.S. government sent 86.56 ETH to Coinbase Prime. These back-to-back transfers have sparked renewed fears of sell pressure from old whales and institutional entities.

Yet, despite the timing, Ethereum’s broader on-chain indicators suggest a more complex and stable market narrative.

Exchange Outflows Dominate as Holders Prefer Self-Custody

While headlines spotlight major transfers, Ethereum’s exchange netflow tells a different story. According to CryptoQuant, netflow has declined by -79.2K ETH, representing a 5.81% drop in exchange reserves. This means far more ETH is being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited—a clear signal that holders prefer long-term storage over immediate sale.

Historically, such outflows have aligned with periods of investor accumulation and reduced short-term sell pressure, laying a foundation for potential price stability or even bullish momentum.

Derivatives Market Remains Bullish Despite Whale Activity

Data from CoinGlass reveals that ETH’s Open Interest-Weighted Funding Rate remains in positive territory at 0.0057%. This metric indicates that traders are paying a premium to hold long positions, reflecting confidence in ETH’s upward potential.

Positive funding typically signals bullish sentiment among leveraged traders. However, it also implies a buildup of risk, as a sudden move downward could liquidate a significant number of long positions—especially within Ethereum’s current tight trading band.

Sentiment Rebounds Amid Growing Social Buzz

On the social front, Ethereum’s Weighted Sentiment has nudged upward to 0.199, indicating cautious optimism among traders. Simultaneously, its Social Dominance spiked to 9.06%, suggesting increased public interest driven by whale and institutional wallet activity.

While this uptick signals rising engagement, the sentiment remains below levels associated with major rallies. It reflects more curiosity than conviction—reinforcing the view that investors are watching closely but not yet fully committed.

$2,500–$2,560: The Short-Term Battleground

Binance’s liquidation heatmap highlights a dense cluster of leveraged positions between $2,500 and $2,560. ETH is currently hovering around $2,555, making this narrow band critical for near-term price action.

A decisive move above $2,560 could trigger short liquidations and lead to a bullish breakout. Conversely, a breakdown below $2,500 may liquidate longs and push ETH further downward. Traders are closely monitoring these levels as potential catalysts for the next directional move.

Despite unsettling whale and government-linked transfers, Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals point toward investor resilience rather than fear.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.

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