As the cryptocurrency world holds its breath for a decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on spot Bitcoin ETFs, analysts are painting a picture of a potential gold rush. Estimates from Standard Chartered, Galaxy Digital, and Corestone Capital predict a tidal wave of investor interest, with inflows topping $1 billion in the first few months and potentially exceeding $100 billion by year-end.
Standard Chartered Bank leads the charge with its optimistic forecast of $50-$100 billion in inflows this year. This could translate to 437,000 to 1.32 million new Bitcoins held in U.S. ETFs by 2024’s close. The bank compares this potential influx to the launch of the first U.S. gold ETF, which saw a 4x price increase over seven years. Following a similar trajectory, Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by 2025, potentially in a shorter timeframe (1-2 years) due to the faster-paced ETF market.
Will McDonough, founder of Corestone Capital, echoes the bullish sentiment, anticipating $1 billion in inflows by Q1 2024. He sees the ETF as a gateway for investors hesitant due to self-custody concerns. With access through traditional brokerage accounts, a larger pool of investors could allocate even a small portion to Bitcoin, potentially sending prices soaring given the fixed supply.
Galaxy Digital adds another layer of optimism, predicting $14.4 billion in inflows within the first year of ETF issuance, potentially climbing to $27 billion and $39 billion in the subsequent years.
Why the buzz?
For many investors, traditional Bitcoin custody has been a hurdle. Spot ETFs would offer convenient access through familiar brokerage accounts, potentially opening the door to a vast pool of new capital.
Beyond Bitcoin, the spotlight is also on Ethereum.
With several asset managers filing for spot Ether ETFs, Standard Chartered expects the SEC to approve them as well, opening up another avenue for investor participation in the crypto space.