Bitcoin (BTC) has a slight chance of falling nearly 26% in the first quarter of 2025, potentially reaching as low as $75,000, according to Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive. In a recent market report shared with Cointelegraph, Dawson raised the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $75,000 to 9.2%, up from 7.2% in just 24 hours. This increased likelihood of a drop reflects growing market uncertainty amid a broader downturn in both the cryptocurrency and stock markets.
Bitcoin’s volatility has been a point of focus, with Dawson attributing the shift to a surge in Bitcoin’s at-the-money implied volatility from 52% to 76%. This jump indicates heightened demand for put options, which traders use to hedge against potential downside risks. On January 27, Bitcoin dropped 6.5% to $97,906, driven by a broad market pullback triggered by the release of China-based AI project DeepSeek’s latest model. However, Bitcoin has since rebounded, trading at $102,100 at the time of publication.
Despite the uptick in bearish sentiment, Bitcoin’s proximity to the $100,000 mark has helped stabilize the outlook, with analysts remaining divided on whether a significant drop is imminent. The last time Bitcoin neared the $75,000 level was in November 2024, following Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential victory. This sparked a month-long rally, which propelled Bitcoin to its all-time high of $100,000 by December.
The ongoing correlation between Bitcoin’s price and broader macroeconomic trends has also been noted. Analysts at Bitfinex highlighted Bitcoin’s increasing ties to risk assets, suggesting that Bitcoin’s movements are less about its own market fundamentals and more influenced by global economic shifts.
In contrast, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts a potential pullback to the $70,000 to $75,000 range, which could trigger a “mini financial crisis” but ultimately lead to a Bitcoin rally toward $250,000 by the end of 2025. While the future remains uncertain, these contrasting views reflect the volatile nature of Bitcoin and the broader market.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
About The Author
