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- Whale selling is typical in Bitcoin’s late-cycle phase, not necessarily panic.
- On-chain metrics suggest potential short-term market lows.
- Historical four-year cycles may guide timing but aren’t absolute.
Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced significant whale selling, raising eyebrows across crypto markets. However, analysts suggest this activity aligns with typical late-cycle patterns rather than signaling an imminent market collapse.
Whale Moves Highlight Market Rotation, Not Panic
On Thursday, a major wallet linked to trader Owen Gunden transferred 2,400 BTC—worth $237 million—to Kraken, according to blockchain analytics platform Arkham. This event adds to a trend of whales distributing holdings.
Glassnode analysts argue that headlines like “OG Whales Dumping” oversimplify the situation. Monthly data shows long-term holders’ spending has risen steadily—from 12,000 BTC per day in early July to 26,000 as of Thursday. This pattern indicates gradual profit-taking common in bull markets rather than abrupt selling.
“This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts—typical late-cycle profit-taking, not a sudden exodus,” Glassnode noted.
Market Cycle Signals Are Subtle, Not Absolute
Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, told Cointelegraph that whale sales represent structured rotation rather than panic. Late-cycle signals, like rising realized gains and resilient liquidity, often indicate cooling momentum, not a market peak.
“Late cycle doesn’t mean the market is capped—it means momentum has cooled while macro factors steer the ship,” Liu said. On-chain metrics, such as Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit ratio of 0.476, suggest short-term lows may be forming, offering potential strategic entry points.
Historical Cycles Provide Context—But Are Not Absolute
Charlie Sherry, head of finance at BTC Markets, highlighted that market tops historically occur roughly every four years, with the last peak on October 6, 2025, arriving 1,050 days after the previous bottom. While this aligns with past cycles, Sherry cautioned that the four-year rhythm is not guaranteed.
Also Read: US Government Shutdown Ends: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Rally as Markets Rebound
“The appetite of institutional players has shifted with ETFs and corporate treasuries, and cycle timing may not apply as strictly as before,” he said.
Whale selling is a normal part of Bitcoin’s late-cycle behavior. While caution is warranted, analysts emphasize that steady profit-taking does not equate to a market collapse. Observing broader macro trends, liquidity, and on-chain signals will remain critical in assessing market direction.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
