Bitcoin Surges 13% in April — But Here’s Why Most Traders Still Don’t Trust It

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• Bitcoin is up 13% in April to $77,377, but widespread analyst skepticism and bearish consensus could be a contrarian bullish signal, not a warning.
• Peter Brandt sees a potential cycle low forming in September–October 2026, with a long-term price ceiling of $300K–$500K by late 2029.
• Santiment warns that real bottoms rarely form when everyone expects one — the current crowd consensus itself may be undermining the October-low narrative.

Bitcoin has climbed roughly 13% since the start of April, recovering from a bruising February that saw it plunge to $60,000 — nearly 53% below its October 2025 peak of $126,100. Yet despite that bounce, the mood across crypto markets is anything but celebratory. Analysts are flagging a curious dynamic: the higher prices climb, the louder the calls for more downside get.

A rally without believers

Bitcoin analyst Matthew Hyland put it bluntly last Saturday: there is no excitement in the market right now. In his view, most participants are simply bending the price action to fit their existing worldview, rather than responding to what the chart is actually doing. He noted that the dominant expectation among traders is still for a further leg down by October — even as BTC trades near $77,377 as of Sunday.

For Hyland, this is a classic sign of disbelief. When the crowd keeps calling for lower prices while the market quietly edges up, it tends to reflect a psychology that’s not yet ready to accept a trend change — which, counterintuitively, can actually be a bullish signal for contrarian traders.

Veteran voices weigh in on a potential cycle bottom

Veteran trader Peter Brandt added nuance to the debate earlier in the week, suggesting Bitcoin could form what he called an investable low sometime between September and October this year. Brandt stopped short of predicting whether that low would undercut February’s $60,000 mark, but he did sketch out a longer-term target of $300,000 to $500,000 by late 2029 — a range that implies multi-year patience for anyone looking to position now.

Also Read: Crypto Clarity Act Delayed Again: Will May Finally Deliver a Breakthrough?

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe struck a more immediately bullish tone. He argued that a decisive break above $86,000 in the coming months would be a strong signal that the cycle low is already behind us, and said he already leans that way with considerable conviction.

The crowd consensus problem

Crypto sentiment tracker Santiment offered a sobering historical reminder: genuine market bottoms almost never arrive when everyone is confidently pointing to one. The firm argues that true lows tend to form when the prevailing narrative is that prices are heading much further south — not when analysts are debating whether October will be the bottom.

That observation cuts to the heart of the current situation. The broad consensus that a bottom is coming in October could itself be an argument that it won’t materialize there at all. Markets have a habit of proving the crowd wrong at precisely the worst moment.

What traders are watching now

The $86,000 level flagged by van de Poppe appears to be the near-term line in the sand. A break above it would challenge the bearish consensus head-on, potentially triggering forced repositioning among traders still positioned for lower prices. Until then, Bitcoin’s 13% April recovery — impressive as it is — remains an asset that has managed to rally without convincing many people that the worst is over.

Whether that skepticism turns out to be wisdom or a missed opportunity may well depend on how the next few months unfold.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.