Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin Options Expire: Will Whales’ Bets Sink BTC or Send It Soaring Past $45,000?

Fridays, for Bitcoin, often mean options expiry, and today is no different. But will this $1.1 billion options dance nudge BTC past the coveted $45,000 mark? Let’s dive into the details and explore the crypto market’s current pulse.

Options Landscape:

  • Around 25,000 Bitcoin options contracts, slightly less than last week, are ready to expire today.
  • The notional value sits at $1.11 billion, with call options outnumbering puts (0.70 put/call ratio).
  • Key strike prices are $40,000 and $45,000, while almost 22,400 calls await $50,000.

Mixed Signals from Options Market:

  • Options market signals seem mixed, as per Greeks Live on December 21, with BTC hovering around $44,000.
  • Large put purchases by “giant whales” raise concerns about potential downside risk, despite high market sentiment.
  • Deribit reports a total open interest (OI) notional value of $16.4 billion, indicating significant outstanding contracts yet to be settled.

Beyond Bitcoin:

  • Ethereum joins the expiry party with 217,000 contracts worth $491 million expiring today.
  • Puts also lag calls here (0.60 put/call ratio), with $2,400 and $2,500 strike prices grabbing the most attention.

Market Outlook:

  • Today’s expiries are unlikely to significantly impact spot markets, already buoyed by a 2.5% daily gain and total capitalization hovering around $1.74 trillion – a May 2022 high.
  • Bitcoin, after reclaiming resistance at $44,135, is up 3.6% compared to last week, while Ethereum follows suit with a near 3% rise to $2,259.
  • Altcoins steal the show today, with Solana momentarily flipping BNB for fourth place before settling back at fifth. Cardano, Avalanche, Polkadot, and Chainlink also register noteworthy gains.

Also read: BTC Whales Reemerge as Blackrock Champions Bitcoin ETF, Potentially Pushing Prices Above $50K

Will BTC Touch $45,000?

While today’s options expiry might not directly influence spot prices, it adds another layer of intrigue to the already vibrant market. With mixed signals, large whale activity, and positive overall sentiment, predicting BTC’s next move becomes a tad trickier. However, the recent momentum and bullish energy among altcoins suggest that Bitcoin could potentially breach $45,000 on Friday, albeit with some potential volatility as options contracts settle.

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