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- Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin’s worst-case cycle bottom is near $55,000, not $35,000.
- Institutional participation and ETF flows may prevent deep 70%+ retracements seen in past cycles.
- Breaking the $72K–$75K support zone could still trigger short-term volatility and cascading sell-offs.
Bitcoin’s recent volatility has renewed debate over how deep the current correction could run. While some bearish forecasters insist a plunge toward $35,000 is still possible, a growing number of analysts argue the market structure simply doesn’t support that kind of collapse. One of the most vocal is crypto analyst Sykodelic, who says key technical indicators point to a much higher floor — around $55,000.
Why a 75% Drawdown Doesn’t Fit This Cycle
According to Sykodelic, predictions of a 70%–80% pullback misunderstand the nature of this cycle’s expansion. Bitcoin only rallied from $15,500 in late 2022 to an October peak of $126,000 — a strong move, but nowhere near the explosive run-ups seen in past cycles.
He argues this matters because deep retracements require extreme upside expansion, typically reflected in soaring RSI readings. “For Bitcoin to retrace 75%, it has to fully expand — and this cycle just did not do that,” he said. Without that level of momentum, the market lacks the conditions for a severe contraction.
The analyst also points to monthly Bollinger Bands, noting Bitcoin has never fallen below the lower band on that timeframe. Even the 2017 cycle — famous for its parabolic blow-off top — didn’t break it.
Institutional Influence May Limit Downside
Others agree that a move toward $35,000 is unlikely. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, said even a drop to $55,000 looks like an extreme scenario. Instead, he expects any deeper pullbacks to stay within the $65,000 to $68,000 zone.
Ko argues that Bitcoin’s maturing market structure is reshaping cycle behavior. With ETF inflows, deeper liquidity, and a broader institutional base, he believes future corrections will be “shallower and more orderly” than the brutal retracements of earlier eras.
Risk Remains if Key Support Fails
Still, some analysts warn that the market isn’t out of danger. Augustine Fan of SignalPlus cautions that losing the $72,000–$75,000 support zone could trigger cascading sell-stops, creating unpredictable short-term stress.
Also Read: How to Protect Your ETH and XRP Portfolio When Bitcoin Collapses
For now, Bitcoin has stabilized around $87,000 after Monday’s dip to $84,000. Whether the next major move proves the bulls or bears right may hinge on how the market reacts to that crucial mid-$70,000 support region.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
