Bitcoin’s price action is drawing attention as it edges closer to its October 2024 breakout pattern. The weekly MACD indicator has just made a bullish cross, a rare signal that previously led to significant price surges. Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $106,000, with market analysts like Moustache noting that the last time this occurred, BTC experienced a substantial uptrend. Traders are closely watching this technical indicator as a potential harbinger of further bullish momentum.
Technical analysts emphasize that Bitcoin’s MACD cross has been a reliable indicator of trend reversals in the past. This time, with BTC inching closer to all-time highs, the indicator is being closely monitored for a potential breakout. On the hourly chart, Bitcoin has displayed several ‘long wick’ candles, suggesting ongoing market indecision amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Adding to the bullish narrative, trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent price action has been characterized by rapid dips being quickly bought up, indicating strong demand. “Any tiny dip was getting scooped up instantly,” Daan noted on X, highlighting the heightened buying interest as a bullish indicator.
$BTC Price action was making it seem like something big was coming. Any tiny dip was getting scooped up instantly and price started to move ~1 hour prior to the announcement.
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) May 12, 2025
We're seeing quite a lot of "aware" price action precede big announcements lately.
The insider/leaking… https://t.co/XPwX0Pcbwa pic.twitter.com/JXLKvHT5yH
CPI and PPI Data to Shake Up Markets
Bitcoin’s volatility is expected to increase this week as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports are scheduled for release. These macroeconomic indicators could impact risk assets, including Bitcoin, as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy moves. Additionally, speculation surrounding the US-China trade deal has kept BTC prices volatile, with sharp price movements reflecting market uncertainty.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that a lack of clarity from the US government regarding the trade deal with China is contributing to Bitcoin’s erratic price action. Meanwhile, traders are bracing for heightened volatility as CPI and PPI data may signal further rate hikes or a policy shift from the Federal Reserve. “Bitcoin is at a critical juncture,” one trader remarked, “with key macroeconomic data poised to impact its near-term trajectory.”
The entire US-China trade deal "pre-announcement" situation has been interesting:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 12, 2025
Friday began with President Trump saying that 80% tariffs on China "seems right."
China responded by saying they "firmly oppose" US abuse of reciprocal tariffs.
All of a sudden, a US-China trade…
In the midst of this, retail earnings reports are also on the agenda, potentially influencing broader market sentiment. Mosaic Asset observed that while trade tensions have eased slightly, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to maintain interest rates has left markets in a state of uncertainty. “The Fed’s ‘wait and see’ stance has traders on edge,” the firm stated.
Also Read: Will Trump’s Bold Moves Fuel a Crypto Boom? 5 Key Events That Could Decide the Fate of Bitcoin!
Bitcoin Supply in Loss Reaches Rare Lows
Despite recent gains, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in loss has fallen below 2%, a phenomenon historically associated with late-stage bull runs. According to CryptoQuant, when BTC supply in loss drops to such levels, it often signals increased selling pressure from long-term holders. However, with Bitcoin nearing all-time highs, some traders anticipate a period of ‘smart distribution,’ where experienced investors may reduce exposure while newcomers enter the market at elevated prices.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a key sentiment indicator, currently sits below previous peaks, despite Bitcoin approaching the $106,000 mark. This could indicate that retail interest remains subdued, leaving room for further upside if more mainstream investors reenter the market. Additionally, Google search trends for ‘Bitcoin’ have not spiked significantly, suggesting that retail traders have yet to fully engage with the latest rally.
In contrast, long-term holders may view the current price levels as an opportunity to take profits, especially given the potential for heightened volatility due to upcoming macroeconomic data releases. Analysts warn that with nearly all BTC holders in profit, the risk of ‘smart distribution’ could increase, potentially leading to sudden price swings.
Additionally, Vijay Selvam, author of “Principles of Bitcoin,” noted that retail interest in Bitcoin remains tepid despite its rise above $100,000. “Google searches for ‘Bitcoin’ are still near five-year lows, indicating that mainstream retail hasn’t fully checked back in since 2020,” Selvam stated. This mismatch between price action and retail sentiment could pave the way for either sustained gains or abrupt corrections, depending on how institutional investors respond to this week’s macro data.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!
