Bitcoin bulls might have reason to cheer as July arrives. After a disappointing June that saw the leading cryptocurrency drop nearly 7%, historical data suggests a potential rebound is on the horizon.
According to Coinglass, which tracks Bitcoin’s monthly returns since 2013, June has historically averaged a slight decline of 0.35%. Interestingly, the data reveals a fascinating pattern: whenever June ends in a downtrend, July tends to be a strong comeback month for Bitcoin. On average, the following month sees a surge of 7.42%.
This trend resonates with memecoin analyst Murad, who has a following of over 100,000 on a social media platform (not mentioned for SEO purposes but implied). Murad highlighted the historical July rebounds, pointing to a potential repeat this year. The analyst further noted that in the past six years, Bitcoin has seen minimum gains of 28% in the first few weeks of July.
However, not everyone is convinced of a smooth ride. Some analysts anticipate a more challenging July compared to previous years. Two significant factors influencing this outlook are the upcoming Mt. Gox creditor repayments and potential sales of Bitcoin by the German government.
Mt. Gox, a now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange, is expected to begin repaying creditors around $8.5 billion in Bitcoin starting in July. While this sounds like a major market disruptor, some analysts believe the impact might be less severe than anticipated.
Jonathan de Wet, chief investment officer at ZeroCap, a digital asset trading firm, points out that only around $4 billion of the repayments are expected to directly hit the spot market, potentially limiting the price drop. He expects Bitcoin to hold around its current range in the low to mid $60,000s, with a possibility of dipping to a “key support” level of $57,000 in the short term due to Mt. Gox repayments.
Despite the potential headwinds, history suggests July could be a month of recovery for Bitcoin. However, the Mt. Gox repayments and German government sales add a layer of uncertainty. Only time will tell if Bitcoin can defy the doubters and deliver a strong July performance.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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