Key Takeaways
- Institutional interest and regulatory progress have pushed the probability of a spot XRP ETF approval by the SEC to 98%, according to Polymarket, significantly boosting investor confidence and market momentum.
- Technical analysts forecast a major rally in XRP’s price, driven by bullish patterns and historical comparisons, with potential highs of $25 to $27 before a possible sharp correction during the next bear market.
XRP recouped its recent losses and hovered around $2.26 on Tuesday, up 9.7% from its local low of $2.06. The price recovery coincided with renewed optimism about the potential approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025. According to Polymarket, the odds of such approval surged to 98%, fueled by growing institutional interest and regulatory clarity following Ripple’s partial legal victory over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) earlier this year.
Institutional Demand and Futures Success Push Approval Odds Higher
Applications from major financial firms such as Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares have added pressure on the SEC to greenlight an XRP ETF. Supporting this push, the CME Group’s launch of XRP futures ETFs in May generated $19 million in first-day volume, underscoring robust institutional demand and market maturity.
Further driving sentiment, companies like Webus International have disclosed plans to allocate over $471 million into XRP treasuries. Webus alone filed a $300 million XRP reserve with the SEC, signaling increasing corporate confidence in the asset. These developments have driven Polymarket’s approval forecast from 68% in April to 98% in early June, with expectations of a final decision before the end of 2025.
🚨 BREAKING: Chinese firm Webus files with US SEC to raise $300M for $XRP treasury plan and Ripple payments integration. pic.twitter.com/J2dgaCxBfN
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) June 4, 2025
Analysts Eye Double-Digit XRP Rally in 2025
Analysts are increasingly bullish, projecting XRP could rally into double digits—some as high as $27—if ETF approvals are granted. Egrag Crypto’s “Guardian Arch” analysis forecasts a surge to $20 based on historical price cycles, moving averages, and a bull flag pattern forming on the monthly chart. However, he warns of a potential 86% correction to $3.00, mirroring the 2021 bear market.
#XRP – The Guardian Arch ($20-$27): Key Targets and Strategy
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) June 9, 2025
By now, you should understand what I mean about targeting double digits. But please, I urge you, don’t wait for just one target to sell. Always take profits rationally and set clear, specific targets. I can’t stress… pic.twitter.com/ORiSEszwic
Fellow analyst Jaydee_757 compared XRP’s current technical structure to the 2017 hidden bullish divergence that preceded a 20x rally. If history repeats, XRP could reach $25 before entering another brutal downturn, possibly dropping 90% in the following bear cycle. Despite this risk, market sentiment remains optimistic as the path toward regulatory approval and institutional adoption strengthens.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
Also Read: Ripple and Web3 Salon Launch $200K Grants for XRPL Startups in Japan
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