Quantum Threat to Bitcoin? 1.1M BTC Could Be at Risk — Here’s Why

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

• Quantum computing could eventually challenge Bitcoin’s current encryption.
  
• Millions of BTC sit in addresses that may become vulnerable.
  
• Post-quantum upgrades could secure the network before threats emerge.

For years, the untouched Bitcoin holdings linked to Bitcoin’s creator have symbolized mystery and long-term conviction. But as quantum computing advances, that same dormant stash is increasingly seen as a potential security flashpoint for the wider Bitcoin ecosystem.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million BTC, held in early wallet formats, could become an attractive target if quantum machines reach sufficient power. The issue is not theft through traditional hacking — it’s whether new computing methods could mathematically unlock private keys once considered impossible to crack.

Why Early Bitcoin Addresses Could Be Vulnerable

Unlike most modern wallets, many of Satoshi’s coins sit in early pay-to-public-key addresses where the public key is permanently visible on the blockchain. Today’s common formats hide that key until a transaction occurs, adding a layer of protection.

If quantum computers become capable of solving the mathematical puzzle behind Bitcoin’s digital signatures, those exposed keys could be reverse-engineered. That would allow attackers to generate valid signatures and move coins without needing passwords or access to any device.

The Race Toward “Q-Day”

Theoretical risks are becoming more tangible as companies including Rigetti, Quantinuum, IonQ, Google, and IBM push forward with ambitious quantum roadmaps.

Researchers estimate a machine capable of breaking current Bitcoin encryption would require thousands of stable logical qubits — something still beyond reach, but no longer purely hypothetical. Governments and private labs are pouring billions into the race, raising concerns that progress could arrive faster than expected.

Millions of Coins Potentially at Risk

A recent analysis by the Human Rights Foundation suggested more than six million BTC sit in addresses that could eventually be vulnerable to quantum attacks. While many of these coins could be moved to safer formats, some — including Satoshi’s — are widely believed to be permanently dormant.

If those coins were suddenly moved, it could signal that Bitcoin’s encryption had been compromised, potentially triggering panic across crypto markets and shaking confidence in blockchain security.

Fortunately, the cryptographic community is already preparing for this scenario. New post-quantum encryption standards led by the National Institute of Standards and Technology are being adopted across the tech sector, and companies like Cloudflare have begun integrating them.

Also Read: Abu Dhabi Dumps $1B Into Bitcoin ETFs — What It Means for Prices

For Bitcoin, the likely path forward would be a gradual network upgrade introducing quantum-resistant address types. Users could voluntarily migrate funds, similar to past upgrades, strengthening security without disrupting the system.

Quantum computing does not threaten Bitcoin today — but it is reshaping long-term security planning. Satoshi’s untouched coins may remain still, yet they now serve as a reminder that even the strongest cryptography must evolve. The real test for Bitcoin will not be whether quantum breakthroughs arrive, but whether the network adapts before they do.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.