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- MicroStrategy sits on 7.3% unrealized loss after August BTC buys.
- September’s weak seasonality and whale profit-taking weigh on sentiment.
- $100K now the critical pivot zone for Bitcoin’s next move.
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After Bitcoin (BTC) closed August down 6.5% from its $115,778 open, questions are mounting about the strength of the ongoing bull run. MicroStrategy (MSTR), which scaled into BTC across three buys in August at an average price of $116,168, now sits on a 7.3% unrealized loss — a position that could either prove visionary or premature.
Macro Volatility Tests Bitcoin Outlook
September begins with a flurry of U.S. economic data releases that could significantly impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. The ISM manufacturing PMI, jobless claims, trade balance, and nonfarm payrolls are all due before the Federal Reserve’s September 17 FOMC meeting. With markets pricing in an 86.4% chance of a rate cut, traders are watching closely for signals of monetary easing that could support risk assets like BTC.
Still, macro risks loom large. July’s headline CPI came in at 2.7%, with core inflation registering its sharpest monthly gain in six months. While inflation remains within expectations, tariffs and broader economic uncertainty could make the Fed reluctant to cut rates, complicating Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.
Seasonal Weakness Weighs on Sentiment
Historically, September has been Bitcoin’s toughest month, with an average return of -3.5%. This seasonal trend is reinforced by on-chain data showing a surge in realized profits among new BTC whales, echoing July’s sell-off near the $123K peak. Unlike prior cycles, whales are not “buying the dip,” suggesting tactical caution rather than conviction buying.
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$100K Support Becomes Critical Pivot
All signs point to $100K emerging as the key support level and potential pivot for the next phase of the BTC bull run. If the Fed delays easing, Bitcoin could see further pressure, testing traders’ confidence in MicroStrategy’s aggressive accumulation strategy. For now, the market narrative remains one of caution, with September’s historical weakness setting the tone.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Whale Selling Pressures BTC Above $108K Support
MicroStrategy’s bet underscores faith in Bitcoin’s long-term value, but macro volatility and seasonal headwinds suggest the bull run may not yet have bottomed. With $100K support in play, September could define whether Bitcoin’s next leg higher materializes or if traders brace for deeper corrections.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
