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- XRP’s $2.80 supply zone is a critical test for bulls this September.
- Weekly MACD signals could trigger a 25% slide toward $2.17.
- Breaking below $1.73 Fib may confirm a bear market, testing $1.19 support.
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XRP has slipped over 22% in the past month, falling from a high near $3.66 to $2.83. With August heading for a monthly loss, investors are closely watching whether the crypto could see further declines in September. Both on-chain data and technical indicators point to potential downside risk, making this a pivotal moment for the top-three cryptocurrency.
On-Chain Data Signals Danger Near $2.80
Glassnode’s cost basis heatmap shows XRP faces key resistance around $2.80–$2.82, where nearly 1.71 billion tokens were acquired. Currently trading slightly above this zone at $2.88, XRP could trigger a wave of profit-taking if it drops below.
Should prices fall further, the next significant support is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $1.73, which previously acted as a solid floor in early 2025. On-chain metrics suggest investors are highly sensitive around these price points, increasing the risk of accelerated selling pressure.
Technical Indicators Point to a Bearish Trend
XRP’s weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is signaling a potential bearish crossover in September. Historically, similar MACD patterns have preceded 50%–60% retracements in May 2021, September 2021, and March 2025.
A repeat of this fractal could push XRP toward the 50-week EMA at $2.17, representing a roughly 25% decline from current levels. Combined with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, technical analysis reinforces the possibility of a deeper pullback.
Bears Could Push XRP Lower if Key Supports Fail
If XRP decisively breaks below both the 50-week EMA and the $1.73 Fib line, it could confirm a bear market, potentially testing the 200-week EMA around $1.19. This level aligns closely with the average acquisition cost of current holders, meaning further declines may trigger significant profit-taking.
Also Read: XRP Investors Warned: Ripple Cuts Community Support Amid $175M Insider Move
However, bulls can still defend the cryptocurrency by maintaining support above the 50-week EMA, as seen since July 2024, when XRP regained momentum after testing this moving average. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with several predicting XRP could rebound toward $4 in the coming months.
September may prove critical for XRP. On-chain supply clusters and technical indicators suggest a potential 25% downside if key supports fail. Yet, historical trends show that strong EMA support could offer a lifeline for bullish momentum.
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Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
