Uniswap Breaks Key Support: Is a 45% UNI Crash Now in Play?

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• UNI has broken below the $4.10 support held since 2022.
  
• Derivatives data shows short traders dominating near resistance.
  
• Exchange outflows suggest long-term investors are accumulating.

Uniswap (UNI) is showing fresh signs of weakness as broader crypto markets remain under pressure. After losing a price level it had defended for nearly three years, UNI now faces the risk of a deeper breakdown. While short-term traders appear positioned for further downside, longer-term holders are quietly accumulating—creating a market split between caution and cautious optimism.

UNI Breaks Multi-Year Support

UNI recently slipped below the critical $4.10 support zone, a level that had held since March 2022. The breakdown was confirmed by a weekly candle close beneath this area, shifting the technical structure into bearish territory.

At the time of writing, UNI was trading near $3.85, down roughly 5% on the day. Trading volume also fell about 9% to $395 million, suggesting reduced participation and rising uncertainty among market participants.

Historically, similar support losses on UNI’s chart have led to extended downside moves. If the token fails to reclaim the $4.10 region, technical projections point toward the next major support near $2.30—implying a potential decline of roughly 45% from current levels.

Indicators Signal Weak Momentum

Momentum indicators paint a cautious picture. The Average Directional Index (ADX) sits at 20.32, below the commonly watched 25 threshold that signals a strong trend. This suggests that while UNI is leaning bearish, selling pressure has not yet reached decisive strength.

Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (MFI) reads 44.32, indicating neutral conditions. Buyers and sellers currently appear balanced, reinforcing the idea that UNI may remain range-bound in the short term unless a catalyst emerges.

Together, these signals imply vulnerability rather than panic—a market that is drifting lower rather than capitulating.

Derivatives Traders Lean Bearish

Futures and leveraged traders appear to be positioning for continued downside. CoinGlass data shows concentrated interest around $3.69 on the lower side and $3.99 on the upside.

Roughly $2.10 million in short-leveraged positions sit near resistance, compared with about $1.63 million in long-leveraged exposure near support. This imbalance suggests that traders expect price to test lower levels before any meaningful bounce.

Such positioning can amplify volatility, especially if liquidation cascades occur around these clusters.

In contrast to derivatives traders, on-chain data hints at steady accumulation. UNI recorded approximately $1.26 million in net outflows from exchanges over the past 24 hours, indicating tokens are being moved into private wallets.

Exchange outflows are often interpreted as a sign that investors are positioning for longer-term holding rather than near-term selling.

Also Read: Uniswap Unlocks Access for 40M+ Revolut Users as Fiat-to-Crypto On-Ramps Go Live

This divergence—bearish short-term speculation versus quiet accumulation—sets up a potentially volatile period ahead.

Uniswap’s loss of a long-standing support level has shifted the technical outlook decisively bearish. A failure to reclaim $4.10 could open the door to a deeper slide toward $2.30. Yet subdued momentum indicators and steady exchange outflows suggest that some investors see value at current prices. For now, UNI sits at a crossroads, with both risk and opportunity clearly in play.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.