Since July, Toncoin (TON) has struggled to reclaim the elusive $8 level, despite teasing several breakout opportunities. However, on-chain data and key metrics suggest the token could rally to that mark before the end of 2024.
Let’s dive into the latest analysis of TON’s market health, user growth, and key support levels driving investor optimism.
Sharpe Ratio Signals Low Risk For TON Investors
Toncoin’s current price hovers at $5.29, with minimal fluctuation since October 11. While the market has appeared sluggish, a deeper look at the Sharpe ratio—a metric that measures risk-adjusted returns—paints a positive picture.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the Sharpe ratio for TON has entered the green zone, signaling low-risk conditions. This shift implies that the asset may offer attractive returns compared to its volatility, making it an appealing option for cautious investors.
Maartunn, a notable crypto analyst, has weighed in on the situation. While he acknowledges the potential for a recovery, he advises investors to remain cautious and wait for more bullish confirmations before making significant moves.
Growing User Activity Supports Bullish Momentum
An encouraging factor for Toncoin is the improvement in its Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence. Typically, a drop in DAA suggests declining user engagement, which often leads to bearish trends. However, as of now, DAA metrics show an uptick in activity on Toncoin’s network—indicating growing interest and potential price support.
This increased network activity, coupled with the low-risk Sharpe ratio, suggests that Toncoin may be gearing up for a rally in the coming months.
A look at TON’s price chart reveals that the token is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5.52—commonly referred to as the “golden pocket.” This area acts as a critical support zone, and if Toncoin can hold this level, it could set the stage for a rally.
If TON reclaims $5.52, the next target would be $6.19, which aligns with the 38.2% Fib level. A successful push beyond that mark could open the door for a surge to $7.27—a level it last hit following Binance’s listing of the Telegram-native token.
Downside Risks – Rejection at Key Levels
Despite the bullish indicators, TON still faces potential risks. A failure to break past $6.19 could result in a decline toward $4.44, forcing investors to reassess the market outlook.
Also Read: Toncoin Soars – 100 Million Holders And A 0.25% Price Dip—What’s Next?
However, with increased user activity and favorable risk metrics, Toncoin appears well-positioned to make another run at $8 before the end of 2024.
While Toncoin has struggled to regain momentum since July, the combination of low-risk conditions, network growth, and Fibonacci retracement levels offers hope for a rally. If TON successfully clears $5.52 and maintains upward momentum, investors could see the altcoin
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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