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Key Takeaways:
- SOL faces minimal resistance above $200, with URPD data showing sparse historical selling pressure beyond that level.
- Open Interest reset is constructive, flushing out leverage while maintaining strong participation.
- Bullish technicals remain intact, with price holding above support and RSI still in favorable territory.
Solana (SOL) appears to be on the brink of a major breakout, according to leading analyst Ali Martinez. With token distribution thinning above $200, and strong support holding below, market signals suggest that SOL could be preparing for a parabolic surge — possibly revisiting its all-time highs.
Little Resistance Beyond $200: URPD Data Backs Bullish Case
Solana’s current resistance structure suggests that most selling pressure has already been exhausted. According to data shared by Ali Martinez, the most significant token concentration sits between $165 and $176. Once SOL breaks through the key level of $200.59 — which now holds psychological and structural significance — there’s “little to no resistance” left to cap further gains.
Notice that once Solana $SOL breaks above $200, there’s little to no resistance standing in the way of a run to new all-time highs. pic.twitter.com/AnqwqaC1m1
— Ali (@ali_charts) July 26, 2025
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart further supports this outlook, showing a steep drop in token holdings above the $200 threshold. This lack of historical overhead supply could serve as a launchpad for SOL to reclaim, or even surpass, its previous all-time high.
Leverage Reset May Strengthen the Next Move
Solana’s Open Interest (OI) hit a year-to-date high of $12.01 billion on July 23 before cooling off to $10.56 billion, according to CoinGlass. While that drop may seem concerning, it’s actually a bullish signal. The dip suggests a flush of excessive leverage — removing speculative froth and reducing the risk of long liquidations.
Despite the cooldown, OI remains elevated, indicating strong investor participation. Historically, such resets often pave the way for more sustainable upward moves, especially when price holds above major support levels — as Solana currently does.
Also Read: Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Skyrockets 433% on ETF Buzz and Solana Meme Coin Surge
Technical Momentum Cools, But Bullish Structure Holds
Solana’s daily chart shows healthy consolidation between $185 and $188 following a recent breakout. Technical indicators reflect a controlled pullback rather than a reversal. The RSI has eased to 60.84, exiting overbought territory while maintaining bullish conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD line is still above the signal line, though the gap is narrowing.
Volume has dipped — a common occurrence after strong upward moves — but unless SOL drops below $180, its bullish structure remains intact. If risk appetite in the broader market returns, SOL may lead the next altcoin rally.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses
I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!
