SEC Commissioner Crenshaw’s Opposition Lowers XRP ETF Approval Odds to 65%

Andrew Chen
SEC

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Key Takeaways:

  • SEC’s Crenshaw votes against all crypto ETF proposals to date.
  • XRP ETF approval odds drop from 90% to 65% on Polymarket.
  • Market still hopeful as XRP meets new SEC listing criteria.

SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw has again positioned herself as a staunch opponent of crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), including the proposed XRP ETF. In recent SEC internal votes—13 in total—Crenshaw was the lone dissenting voice, opposing updates related to major crypto ETPs like IBIT, BITB, and Bitwise’s Bitcoin and Ethereum funds. Her stance continues to influence market confidence, with XRP ETF approval odds falling sharply.

Source: X

Market Sentiment Shifts After SEC Votes

Following the SEC’s recent decisions, approval odds for an XRP ETF dipped to 65% on Polymarket, down from earlier highs of 90%. Although the odds rebounded slightly to 71%, the market remains jittery. The sentiment decline coincides directly with Crenshaw’s continued resistance, which analysts interpret as a sign of future roadblocks for altcoin-based ETFs.

Despite this, there are still positive signals. XRP now satisfies new SEC criteria for altcoin ETPs—specifically the requirement that tokens must have actively traded derivatives for six months. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas remains cautiously optimistic, and speculation is growing around a potential BlackRock XRP ETF, especially with the company’s director set to speak at Ripple’s Swell 2025.

Also Read: SEC Just Cleared Liquid Staking—Here’s Why It’s Huge for Ethereum and DeFi

Beyond ETFs: Crenshaw Criticizes Broader Crypto Guidance

Crenshaw’s skepticism goes beyond ETFs. She has criticized SEC staff guidance on liquid staking and USD-pegged stablecoins, calling the latter “factually flawed” and legally unstable. She warned that phrases like “digital dollar” mislead retail investors and argued that current regulatory frameworks lack real-world applicability.

A Critical Voice in the Crypto Debate

As crypto infrastructure gains legitimacy—evidenced by in-kind creation and redemption approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—Commissioner Crenshaw’s dissent remains a critical factor. Her continued opposition could heavily influence the SEC’s stance on future altcoin ETPs, including any potential XRP ETF. With the market watching closely, Crenshaw’s next moves could shape the regulatory path ahead.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.

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