The world of crypto prediction markets is buzzing with speculation that Polymarket, a leading player in the sector, might be preparing to launch its own token. This year’s meteoric rise in Polymarket’s trading volume has fueled rumors that the platform could reward its growing user base with airdrops. With the platform’s success soaring, some users are already maneuvering to maximize their chances of securing a piece of the potential airdrop pie.
As of now, Polymarket has not confirmed any plans for a token, and the company has not responded to Decrypt’s inquiry. However, the surge in trading activity, particularly in the wake of the U.S. election cycle, has led many to believe that a token launch could be imminent. This speculation has prompted a subset of traders to engage in behavior aimed at inflating their trading volume to boost their airdrop prospects.
With no transaction or subscription fees, Polymarket is positioned uniquely in the market. The platform raised a significant $70 million in May during its Series B funding round, with notable backing from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. “Polymarket is running on zero fees right now and just raised a bunch of money,” said pseudonymous trader Tyrael. “Usually, that follows with a token generation event so investors are able to get some return on capital.”
The platform’s success has been remarkable, with nearly $450 million in trading volume recorded in August alone and a peak of over 60,000 active traders, according to Dune Analytics. Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Coplan has even highlighted its role in non-crypto-native coverage of the U.S. presidential election.
The influx of capital from the Series B round seems to have intensified rumors of a potential airdrop. Polymarket whale Fhantom Bets observed increased trading volume and speculated that an airdrop might be on the horizon. “It doesn’t seem like there’s any other way for it to make money without an airdrop,” said CSP Trading, also known as CrunchWrapoDeLaFuente.
However, concerns have emerged that the airdrop might be limited in size, as the platform may prefer to use its funds for growth rather than distributing them. “I suspect a token might be coming and maybe a small airdrop, but nothing significant,” CSP added.
Speculation about the timing of a potential token launch suggests it might occur after the U.S. election, aiming to retain user engagement as the election hype wanes. Polymarket’s trading volume for August 2024 hit a staggering $472.8 million, a 5,961% increase from the $7.8 million recorded a year earlier. Similarly, new account registrations skyrocketed to 71,670 in August, compared to just 3,916 the previous year.
In the meantime, some traders are attempting to game the system by inflating their trading volumes through rapid buying and selling. For instance, accounts have been seen buying large volumes of shares and then selling them quickly to boost their reported volume without incurring losses, thanks to Polymarket’s fee-free model. Such behavior has led to inflated volume figures, with traders like Jun28 showcasing large volumes but minimal profit or loss.
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These tactics have not gone unnoticed by the community. “I doubt any of that volume would be rewarded,” Fhantom Bets commented. “If there’s any farming reporting period, I would be the number one guy making sure that no one is rewarded for this kinda stuff.”
As the speculation continues, the crypto community remains on edge, eagerly awaiting any official announcement from Polymarket. Whether or not a token launch is in the cards, the current surge in trading activity and strategic adjustments highlight the dynamic and ever-evolving nature of the crypto prediction market.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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