Hedera (HBAR) Faces Uncertainty After 40% Drop: Will a Breakout Lead to $0.38 or a Deeper Decline?

Hedera (HBAR) has failed to live up to market expectations in 2025, with its price hovering around $0.16, marking a 40% decline from just one month ago. Despite this disappointing performance, there are signs that HBAR could be on the brink of a recovery. However, for a meaningful breakout to occur, certain conditions must align.

Looking back, HBAR’s price dropped from $0.38 on January 17 to $0.20 by February 27, driven by heavy selling pressure. This decline formed a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, which is typically considered a bullish signal. HBAR briefly broke out of this wedge on March 2, climbing to $0.28. Yet, the subsequent price action has failed to sustain that momentum.

At present, HBAR is following a similar pattern, forming another falling wedge since the recent high of $0.28. However, the crucial momentum indicator, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), is currently in the negative zone, signaling weak bearish momentum. This suggests that HBAR’s price might struggle to initiate a rebound unless the MACD flips to positive territory, signaling stronger buying interest.

Analyst Carl Moon believes HBAR could be poised for a move up if it breaks above the current wedge. He sets a target of $0.38 if the breakout is validated. Yet, for this scenario to unfold, HBAR needs to overcome key resistance levels.

One major hurdle is the “death cross” formation, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits above the 20-day EMA. This bearish signal suggests that HBAR may continue consolidating or even face a further correction, potentially dipping to $0.12 if it fails to break the wedge’s upper trendline.

Ultimately, HBAR’s price action remains uncertain. A breakout above resistance could push HBAR toward $0.22 or $0.28, especially if broader market conditions improve. However, until that happens, the token’s fate hinges on how it responds to these critical technical levels.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.

Also Read: Hedera (HBAR) at Risk: Death Cross Formation Signals Potential Price Drop

Sean Williams

I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!