- Analysts are unsure how much a potential Ethereum ETF approval/denial will impact prices, with some believing it won’t be a major factor.
- Technical analysis suggests Ethereum’s price could rise in the coming months, potentially mirroring past trends after Bitcoin halvings.
- The SEC’s investigation into the Ethereum Foundation throws doubt on a near-term Ethereum ETF approval, hinting at a period of price volatility for ETH.
The Ethereum (ETH) market is buzzing with conflicting narratives as the Bitcoin halving nears. While some analysts believe a potential Ethereum ETF denial won’t significantly impact prices, others see a green light as a major catalyst.
ETF Impact Bullish on Approval, Neutral on Denial
Jupiter Zheng, Head of Research at Hashkey Capital, believes the market isn’t heavily invested in an Ethereum ETF approval. “If the ETF is denied, it will not be that bearish…we still have BTC ETFs as the entrance for traditional funds.” However, he acknowledges a potential approval, particularly if it includes staking, could be “really bullish” due to short position liquidations pushing prices higher.
Open Interest: A Muted Response
Despite the ETF debate, Zheng predicts minimal impact on Ethereum futures open interest (OI), currently sitting at $12.89 billion compared to Bitcoin’s $31.74 billion. This suggests the market isn’t “betting hard” on an ETF’s immediate influence.
Meanwhile, technical analyst Jelle sees potential in historical trends. He observes a similar pattern in Ethereum’s price chart before the last Bitcoin halving, which was followed by a significant surge. Jelle highlights an ascending triangle formation on the chart, potentially indicating an upcoming price increase.
“ETH Season” on Hold?
Zheng remains optimistic about an eventual “ETH season,” but recent news throws a curveball. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigating the Ethereum Foundation casts doubt on the near-term approval of spot Ethereum ETFs.
Also Read: Following Bitcoin’s Success, Bitwise Files for Ethereum ETF – Can it Crack the 30% Approval Rate?
The Verdict: Brace for Volatility
With the Bitcoin halving approaching and conflicting opinions swirling, Ethereum’s price movement in the coming months is likely to be volatile. While an ETF denial might not be a major blow, its potential approval could trigger a bullish rally. Investors should closely monitor regulatory developments and technical indicators for clues on Ethereum’s future trajectory.
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