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Key Takeaways:
- Unrealized short losses are mounting, but traders are holding firm in anticipation of a price drop.
- Bearish derivatives data and liquidity clusters below $0.165 suggest DOGE may fall to $0.162 or lower.
- Bullish accumulation is decreasing, signaling fading interest and giving bears more room to maneuver.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has struggled to find a clear market direction in recent weeks. While the memecoin posted modest weekly gains of 5.47%, it remains down over 14% on the monthly chart. A tug-of-war between bulls and bears continues, but multiple on-chain and derivative signals suggest that bears may be gaining the upper hand.
Shorts Hold Strong Despite $132M in Unrealized Losses
According to Glassnode data from June 30, unrealized losses for DOGE short positions reached a staggering $132.2 million — compared to just $5 million in unrealized profits. This 26:1 loss-to-profit ratio highlights the confidence (or desperation) of short traders, many of whom continue to hold out for a deeper correction.
These are unrealized losses, meaning positions remain open and could swing into profit — or deeper losses — depending on the price trajectory. The persistence of short traders implies a strong belief in an upcoming decline.
Liquidity and Derivatives Metrics Signal More Pain Ahead
CoinGlass data reveals that 51.97% of trades are being driven by shorts, and the long-to-short ratio has dropped to 0.92, reflecting rising bearish sentiment. Typically, a ratio below 1 indicates that sellers are dominating the market.
Further supporting this outlook is DOGE’s Liquidation Heatmap, which shows dense liquidity clusters below $0.165 — the current price level. These clusters, often composed of leveraged long orders, may act like magnets for price action. Should DOGE breach the $0.165 threshold, further declines to $0.162 or even $0.159 could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, flipping unrealized short losses into actual profits.
Bullish Accumulation Slows Amid Weak Price Action
Despite the looming downside pressure, DOGE bulls haven’t completely left the building. CoinGlass data shows that bullish traders accumulated $5.5 million worth of DOGE on June 30, adding to a weekly total of $49.16 million.
However, that figure represents a stark decline from the $105 million peak accumulation seen on June 9. The downtrend in bullish buying may signal fading investor confidence and weakening demand, further emboldening short sellers.
Dogecoin’s technical and on-chain landscape currently favors bearish continuation. Short sellers are holding on despite unrealized losses, liquidity zones point lower, and accumulation is waning. Unless bulls return with conviction, DOGE may face further declines in the coming days.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
Also Read: DOG Bitcoin Meme Coin Price Prediction: Analyst Says Will Flip Dogecoin to $100B
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
