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- ADA is testing a long-held support zone near $0.315–$0.325.
- Whales are accumulating while retail wallets reduce exposure.
- A bounce or a 25% drop may hinge on the next daily close.
Cardano (ADA) is approaching one of its most important price zones in months, and the market appears deeply divided on what comes next. The token has been sliding steadily and recently fell 7.7% in 24 hours to around $0.325. Yet while price weakens, trading activity is surging, hinting that many participants see this area as decisive rather than terminal.
With ADA hovering near a long-defended support, technical signals, on-chain data, and derivatives positioning are converging around a single question: is this a base for recovery, or a gateway to deeper losses?
ADA Nears a Long-Tested Support Zone
The $0.315–$0.325 region has played a critical role for ADA since late 2023. Price has repeatedly rebounded from this zone, establishing it as a structural floor on the weekly chart. ADA is now revisiting that level again, making it a clear make-or-break area.
If bulls manage to defend this support and keep price above $0.315, historical behavior suggests a rebound could follow. Past reactions from this range have produced multi-week upside moves. However, a confirmed daily close below $0.315 would weaken the structure and open the door for a potential slide toward the $0.23 area—roughly 25% below current levels.
Momentum Indicators Paint a Mixed Picture
Trend strength remains elevated. ADA’s Average Directional Index (ADX) sits above 27, signaling a strong directional move is in progress. The problem for bulls is that the trend is currently pointing down.
At the same time, the Money Flow Index (MFI) is near 32, reflecting declining buying pressure and an asset approaching oversold territory. While this does not guarantee a bounce, it often precedes short-term relief rallies when demand re-enters the market.
On-Chain Data Shows Quiet Accumulation
Despite the falling price, underlying demand appears more resilient than sentiment suggests. Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta has remained positive for several days, meaning buyers are consistently executing market buys rather than waiting for lower prices.
Large holders are also increasing exposure. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA accumulated roughly 454 million tokens over the past two weeks. In contrast, smaller wallets holding at least 100 ADA have slightly reduced positions, signaling retail caution while whales step in.
This divergence often appears near inflection points, when stronger hands absorb supply from weaker ones.
Also Read: ADA Price Forecast: Why Cardano’s Latest Bounce May Be a Trap
Leverage data shows heavy positioning around $0.319 on the downside and $0.341 on the upside. Short positions outweigh longs, indicating traders are still leaning bearish, but the clustering of liquidity near current price suggests volatility could increase as either side is forced to unwind.
Cardano is sitting at a crossroads. A successful defense of the $0.315 region could trigger a technical rebound fueled by oversold conditions and whale accumulation. A breakdown, however, would confirm broader weakness and likely push ADA toward much lower levels.
For now, the market is in wait-and-see mode, and ADA’s next daily close may determine its direction for weeks to come.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
