Bitcoin [BTC] has encountered a crucial market shift, prompting experts to reconsider its trajectory. At press time, BTC was trading at $81,896.71, reflecting a 0.46% decline in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. This downturn has raised concerns among analysts, including CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who now suggests that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may have ended.
Ki Young Ju’s Bitcoin Warning
Ki Young Ju, once dismissive of bearish concerns, has now issued a cautionary statement regarding Bitcoin’s market cycle. In a recent post on X, he highlighted that key on-chain metrics indicate a potential downturn or sideways movement for the next six to twelve months. His analysis of Bitcoin’s Profit and Loss (PnL) Index suggests that optimism for a strong rebound might be misplaced.
#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action. pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025
According to Ju, liquidity inflows are weakening, while newly emerged whale investors are selling at lower price levels—a historically bearish signal. Utilizing Principal Component Analysis (PCA) across metrics like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL with a 365-day moving average, he identified indicators pointing toward a shift in Bitcoin’s cycle. However, some traders remain skeptical, citing Ju’s previous incorrect sell signal in 2020.
Institutional Demand Weakens
Another concerning factor is the decline in fresh liquidity. Ju noted that ETF inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks, signaling a potential reduction in institutional buying pressure. Sustained outflows from ETFs often indicate a weakening market, raising doubts about Bitcoin’s ability to regain bullish momentum in the near term.
“Sorry to change my view, but it now looks pretty clear that we’re entering a bear market,” Ju stated. Despite his bearish outlook, he confirmed that he is not shorting BTC and continues to hold his spot positions.
I've been calling for a bull market over the past two years, even when indicators were borderline. Sorry to change my view, but it now looks pretty clear that we're entering a bear market.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 18, 2025
Realized cap-based indicators show a lack of new liquidity. Massive volume around 100K… pic.twitter.com/hAyJ5MvaQP
Is There Hope for a Bitcoin Rebound?
While short-term indicators suggest bearish sentiment, historical trends point to a possible recovery. Data from past cycles reveals that Bitcoin often experiences strong gains between April and October. If this pattern holds, BTC could stabilize before resuming an upward trajectory, potentially surpassing its previous all-time high by mid-2025.
Also Read: Bitcoin Whale Nets $9.4M in 8 Days on 40x Short—What’s Next After CPI & FOMC?
With uncertainty looming, the market eagerly watches whether Bitcoin will succumb to bearish pressure or stage another remarkable comeback.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
