Bitcoin [BTC] plunged 12% over the past week, tumbling to a new low of $74,000 on Monday amid mounting macroeconomic uncertainty and renewed Trump-era tariff fears. This drop marks a 30% correction from its all-time high (ATH) of $109,500, raising fresh concerns among traders and investors alike.
Despite the bearish turn, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, has doubled down on his bullish forecast. “BTC > 110k in 2025,” Thompson wrote, citing accurate previous predictions, including Bitcoin’s summer surge to $100K and a subsequent correction into the low $80K range. He believes that a favorable macro shift—driven by potential tax cuts and deregulation under a second Trump administration—could propel Bitcoin to new heights.
Me: Calls Trump win early 2024. Calls BTC 100k in summer 2024. Calls BTC correction to low 80s since late December 2024.
— Quinn Thompson (@qthomp) April 7, 2025
Trolls with TDS: "You're retarded"
BTC > 110k in 2025. pic.twitter.com/ixURNUIFGt
Short-Term Sentiment Turns Defensive
However, caution prevails in the short term. Kelly Greer of Crucible Capital observed a surge in demand for protective puts across options markets. “Protection is the most in demand that it’s been in 12 months,” she noted, with peak negative gamma likely to amplify volatility in the near term.
alex's points are all constructive med-long term. rising likelihood of a strategic reserve btc purchase in 2025 is particularly interesting
— Kelly Greer (@kellyjgreer) April 6, 2025
but i can't help but point to the short term vol the options market is signaling. protection is the most in demand that it's been in 12… https://t.co/jBDtM7bEdj pic.twitter.com/oWHvwCkZB3
Supporting that view, Amberdata’s Greg Magadini highlighted that short-dated options are heavily skewed toward bearish bets. “Opportunity favors crypto shorts… as opposed to longs right now,” Magadini added, suggesting a short-term bias toward downside positioning.
Valuation Signals Mixed Outlook
From a valuation perspective, Bitcoin’s picture is nuanced. Realized cap data signals slowing capital inflows, hinting at the early stages of a bear market. However, the MVRV-Z score—a metric comparing market value to realized value—indicates BTC may be approaching undervaluation levels last seen in September 2024.
Also Read: MicroStrategy Halts Bitcoin Purchases as BTC Price Crashes Below $80K
While short-term traders remain wary, long-term bulls like Thompson argue the macro tides could soon turn. For now, Bitcoin investors are caught between protective hedging and the hope of another record-breaking rally in 2025.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
