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- July CPI matched expectations, reinforcing September rate-cut bets.
- BTC range support near $120k-$125k sets up structural Q4 breakout.
- Conservative projections put Bitcoin year-end target at $156k-$168k.
July’s inflation data came in as expected, matching June’s print and slightly exceeding the 2.8% analyst forecast. For the crypto market, this represents one of the most bullish macro headlines in recent months. With Bitcoin (BTC) trading just below all-time high supply, softer inflation adds fuel to the narrative of a September Federal Reserve rate cut. Current market pricing reflects a 94.4% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction at the next FOMC meeting—up sharply from 85% pre-CPI.
This dovish backdrop aligns with record tariff inflows of $25 billion in July and comments from Donald Trump downplaying tariffs’ inflationary impact. Combined, these factors create a favorable environment for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, as traders anticipate increased liquidity heading into Q4.
September Sets the Stage for Q4
Historically, September has been a mixed month for Bitcoin, with only four of the last twelve Septembers closing green. However, this year’s dynamics go beyond historical patterns. Softer inflation, front-loaded rate-cut bets, and dovish sentiment set the stage for a potential liquidity tailwind.
If BTC can maintain its range support near the $120k-$125k liquidity shelf, the cryptocurrency may be structurally positioned for a breakout as the market transitions into the historically bullish fourth quarter. September’s developments will likely dictate the initial trajectory, shaping market expectations for Q4 gains.
Also Read: How Bitcoin Turned Steak ‘n Shake’s Sales Around in Just 2 Months
Q4 Upside Potential for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has traditionally performed best in Q4, averaging returns of 85.42% over past cycles. Using a conservative projection of 30–40% upside from current levels around $120k, BTC could target a year-end range of $156k-$168k.
While the market remains cautious in the short term, the combination of tame CPI, robust liquidity, and technical range support positions Bitcoin for a potential surge. Traders and investors will be closely watching September as the defining month for Q4 performance, with current conditions suggesting a sweet spot for outsized gains.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
