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- BTC reaches four-week high at $117K before Fed decision.
- Breaking $118K could trigger run toward all-time highs.
- Volatility expected post-FOMC; traders eye Powell’s comments.
Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a four-week high above $117,000 on Wednesday as traders positioned for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Market sentiment is heavily leaning toward a 25 basis points cut, with CME FedWatch data showing a 96% probability, and Polymarket bettors aligning at 93%. A smaller chance of a 50 bps reduction sits at just 4–5%.
Analysts suggest much of this anticipated volatility may already be priced in. However, traders are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments for subtle shifts in tone that could influence BTC price action.
Resistance at $118,000 Holds the Key
Bitcoin is now testing resistance in the $116,500–$118,000 range. Analysts indicate that breaking and holding above $118,000 could unlock a push toward $120,000 and potentially all-time highs near $124,500. MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe noted that current BTC “attacks” on the resistance range could be a precursor to a breakout if the level is breached.
On the downside, support zones between $116,800 and $114,500 remain critical. Falling below these could trigger a retest of the $112,000 psychological level, coinciding with the 100-day simple moving average.
Also Read: Metaplanet Acquires Bitcoin.jp to Build Japan’s Leading Bitcoin Hub Amid Bold Expansion
Volatility and Market Sentiment Post-FOMC
Swissblock highlights that regardless of the Fed’s decision, volatility is virtually guaranteed. Their Bitcoin Risk Index may offer insight into whether BTC maintains its bullish trajectory or faces short-term retracement. AlphaBTC projects that BTC could briefly climb to $118,000 before retracing after the FOMC announcement, underlining the cautious optimism among traders.
Bitcoin, what is the plan?
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) September 15, 2025
Markets are locked on the FOMC Wednesday, with a 25 bps cut priced in and Powell’s stance under the spotlight for hints.
Volatility is guaranteed: the Risk will guide whether BTC’s bullish structure holds or if a sell-off looms on the horizon. pic.twitter.com/biqz4L8RiL
Eyes on Powell and BTC Resistance
As the FOMC decision approaches, all eyes are on Jerome Powell’s comments and BTC’s ability to surpass $118,000. Breaking this key resistance could set the stage for fresh highs, while failure may see the market testing lower support levels. Traders are bracing for a decisive move that could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory into the final quarter of 2025.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m a crypto enthusiast with a background in finance. I’m fascinated by the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial systems. I’m always on the lookout for new and innovative projects in the space. I believe that crypto has the potential to create a more equitable and inclusive financial system.
