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- Bitcoin may see a short-term bounce before renewed downside pressure.
- Analysts are sharply divided between bullish long-term targets and bearish 2026 resets.
- Macro forces and liquidity will likely dominate Bitcoin’s direction in the year ahead.
Bitcoin is closing the year on uncertain footing after a weak final quarter, leaving markets divided over what lies ahead. While long-term conviction remains strong among some analysts, short-term price action suggests volatility will dominate, with relief rallies possible before deeper downside risks emerge in 2026.
The broader trend for Bitcoin remains intact, but momentum has stalled. Liquidity conditions, macro policy shifts, and political uncertainty are now the primary drivers, keeping traders cautious as the market heads into the new year.
Short-Term Bounce May Be a Trap
Some analysts believe Bitcoin could stage a short-term rebound before resuming its decline. Market analyst Mr. Wall Street argues that downside liquidity remains too thin to sustain a sharp sell-off in the near term. As a result, Bitcoin could push higher toward the $98,000–$104,000 range, an area packed with liquidity and unresolved fair value gaps.
However, he warns this move would likely be a bull trap rather than the start of a new uptrend. A bounce into that zone could draw in late buyers before the market rolls over again, extending the corrective phase into early 2026.
2026 Outlook Split Between Extremes
Looking further ahead, expectations for 2026 remain sharply divided. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, says options markets are pricing nearly equal odds of Bitcoin trading near $50,000 or surging toward $250,000 by the end of the year. That wide range reflects uncertainty rather than conviction.
Thorn points to macroeconomic pressure, evolving monetary policy, and political risk as key variables shaping Bitcoin’s next major move. These forces, he argues, will likely keep volatility elevated throughout 2026.
Long-Term Case for $250K Remains Intact
Despite near-term risks, long-term bullish views have not disappeared. Thorn maintains that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by late 2027 as institutional participation deepens and long-term volatility declines. In this view, Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro asset rather than a purely speculative trade.
Supporting this perspective, analyst Sykodelic believes Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to global liquidity and gold. Using historical relationships, he estimates fair value around $153,000, with potential overshoots above $200,000 as price reverts to long-term averages.
Bearish Scenarios Gain Traction
Still, many analysts expect 2026 to be a challenging year. Lark Davis believes Bitcoin has already peaked this cycle, with $126,000 marking the top. Fidelity’s cycle analysis also flags 2026 as a down year, with strong support between $65,000 and $75,000.
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Mr. Wall Street shares that view, projecting a move toward $64,000–$70,000 by late Q1 or early Q2 of 2026 — a reset rather than a final bottom.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
I’m your translator between the financial Old World and the new frontier of crypto. After a career demystifying economics and markets, I enjoy elucidating crypto – from investment risks to earth-shaking potential. Let’s explore!
