As we approach a pivotal week in November, the United States spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are poised to achieve a remarkable milestone: amassing a total of 1 million Bitcoin in holdings. With traders preparing for potential tailwinds—such as the upcoming U.S. presidential election, anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and Russia’s decision to lift its Bitcoin mining ban—this could be a significant moment for the cryptocurrency market.
The Numbers Behind The ETF Surge
Currently, ETF issuers in the U.S. hold 976,893 Bitcoin, valued at over $66.2 billion. This impressive figure constitutes nearly 5% of Bitcoin’s total market cap of $1.34 trillion, according to data from Apollo and SoSoValue. To hit that coveted million Bitcoin mark, ETFs would need to secure $1.55 billion in net inflows at current prices, which would allow for the purchase of an additional 23,107 Bitcoin. This week alone, an average of $301 million in daily net inflows is necessary to reach this milestone.
Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani highlighted a significant trend: $3 billion has already flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the last two weeks. Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience and growth in the months following halving events, with the latest halving occurring in April 2024. The upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5 could also serve as a catalyst for price increases, mirroring the past behavior of Bitcoin following key political events.
Historical Context – Election Influence on Bitcoin
In November 2020, Bitcoin surged nearly 43% after the halving event in May and the election of President Joe Biden. Market analysts, including CK Zheng, the chief investment officer of ZX Squared Capital, suggest that similar price movements could recur, regardless of the election outcome.
Yet, the stakes are high: Apollo Capital’s Henrik Andersson pointed out that the “biggest deciding factor” for a Bitcoin rally could be a potential Donald Trump victory. “If he does win, we believe the resulting momentum in risk assets could drive BTC to reach $100,000 by the end of the year,” he said. Such a surge would not only set a new all-time high (ATH) but also capture headlines worldwide.
Recent Developments Boosting Market Sentiment
Recent trends indicate that institutional interest is contributing to the bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. Emory University recently reported an investment of $15.1 million in the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, as indicated by an October 25 filing with the U.S. securities regulator. Moreover, with the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to meet on November 6 and 7, market forecasts suggest a 94.7% chance of a 25 basis points cut in interest rates. Lower rates typically alleviate financial pressure on consumers and tend to favor market performance in the short term.
In addition, Russia’s decision to lift its Bitcoin (BTC) mining ban on November 1 is seen as a significant bullish development, potentially enhancing network decentralization and security—further solidifying Bitcoin’s standing in the global market.
Also Read: Crypto Market Shaken – Tether Probe Sparks 3% USDT Dip, Could History Repeat With Bitcoin Surge?
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,700, struggling to breach the $70,000 mark but finding strong support around $65,000. “There is a MASSIVE pile of longs sitting just under 65K, which is also a very important support level,” noted crypto trader “Luca” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on October 26.
With the convergence of these factors, November could indeed be a pivotal month for Bitcoin, setting the stage for a potential rally as the cryptocurrency landscape evolves. As traders keep a watchful eye on market movements, the push towards that 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) milestone is not just a number—it’s a reflection of growing institutional interest and market confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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